Newsquawk Daily US Election Update - 11th September 2024: Day after the debate before

Analysis details (12:30)

• I do not think it needs to be said, but the update since yesterday was the Harris vs. Trump Presidential debate, whereby a CNN poll showed 63% of voters thought Harris won the debate, as betting markets seem to indicate a similar picture.

On those betting markets:

PredicIt: Harris USD 0.56 vs. Trump USD 0.47 (prev. 0.53 vs. 0.52 D/D).

Polymarket: Harris 49% v. Trump 49% (prev. 45% vs. 52%).

• Regarding the debate itself, it focused on known themes such as immigration, abortion, health care, the economy, and trade policy, but it was largely dominated by the respective candidates attempting to bait each other, sometimes successfully, sometimes not.


• Recapping some of the policy outlines we got, Trump will raise tariffs, whereby Harris will not. Trump will try to deport millions. On healthcare, Harris wants to cap prescription drug costs at USD 2,000 for all Americans, while Trump has a “concept of a plan”. On the Russia/Ukraine war, Trump said he will end the war immediately, and would do it before he even got into office, regardless of geopolitical risks. Harris will seemingly back Ukraine and NATO to the hilt. Overall, two starkly different political, economic, and geopolitical scenarios.


• Following the debate, VP Harris's campaign is calling for a second debate with Trump in October.


• In terms of endorsements, mega-star Taylor Swift endorsed VP Harris and her running mate Waltz in wake of the election.

ING SCENARIOS:

11 Sep 2024 - 12:30- Research Sheet- Source: Newsquawk