Newsquawk Daily European Opening News - 24th April 2025

• US President Trump said it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down and they have spoken to 90 countries regarding tariffs already.


• US President Trump said if they don't have a deal, they will set tariffs and could set the tariff for China over the next two or three weeks, while he suggested that there is daily direct contact between US and China.


• White House Economic Advisor Hassett said the USTR has 14 meetings scheduled this week with foreign trade ministers and there are 18 written offers from trade ministers, while he stated China is open to talks.


• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed despite the positive handover from Wall Street - the risk momentum waned overnight as trade uncertainty lingered owing to the mixed signals from the US.


• Overnight, US equity futures marginally eased, DXY slightly softened, spot gold and 10yr UST futures rebounded from the prior day's troughs.


• European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down U/C after the cash market closed with gains of 2.8% on Wednesday.


• Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo, US Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, IMF/World Bank Spring Meeting; Speakers including ECB's Lagarde & Lane, Fed's Kashkari, BoE's Lombardelli & Riksbank's Seim; Supply from Italy, UK & US; Earnings from Alphabet, Intel, American Airlines, Freeport, Southwest Airlines, PepsiCo, Dow Chemical, Merck, Valero,  PG&E, T-Mobile, Vale, Eni, Anglo American, Weir, BNP Paribas, Sanofi, Orange, STMicroelectronics, Air Liquide, Renault, Carrefour, Michelin, SGS, Roche & Nestle.

SNAPSHOT

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• 
  US stocks gained with sentiment supported after President Trump recently softened his tone on Fed Chair Powell and amid positive rhetoric regarding China and US trade with the WSJ reporting that the White House is considering cutting China tariffs to de-escalate the trade war and that tariffs likely to be between 50-65%, although no final decision has been made.


• Nonetheless, some of the gains were then pared after officials noted the White House is not considering cutting tariffs on China unilaterally and that it would be part of negotiations which are yet to take place.


• 
  SPX +1.67% at 5,376, NDX +2.28% at 18,693, DJI +1.07% at 39,607, RUT +1.53% at 1,919.


• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• 
  US President Trump said it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down and they have spoken to 90 countries regarding tariffs already. Trump said if they don't have a deal, they will set tariffs and could set the tariff for China over the next two or three weeks, while he suggested that there is daily direct contact between US and China. Furthermore, Trump commented that they don't want cars from Canada and that car tariffs from Canada could go up, as well as noted that they are working on a deal with Canada and will see what happens.
  


• 
  It was earlier reported that US President Trump is to exempt carmakers from some US tariffs in which he was said to be planning to spare carmakers from some of his most onerous tariffs, in another trade war climbdown following intense lobbying by industry executives over recent weeks, according to FT.


• 
  White House Economic Advisor Hassett said the USTR has 14 meetings scheduled this week with foreign trade ministers and there are 18 written offers from trade ministers, while he stated China is open to talks.


• 
  PBoC Governor Pan said in Washington that there are no winners in trade wars and tariff wars, while he added that unilateralism and protectionism have no way out and are not in the interests of anyone. Furthermore, Pan said China will adhere to opening up and firmly supports free trade rules and the multilateral trading system.
  


• Chinese embassy in the US posted a statement from an official saying “Our doors are open, if the US wants to talk. If a negotiated solution is truly what the US wants, it should stop threatening and blackmailing China and seek dialogue based on equality, respect and mutual benefit. To keep asking for a deal while exerting extreme pressure is not the right way to deal with China and simply will not work."


• WSJ's Lingling Wei said there is an opportunity right now to get the US and China talking, while she noted how a delegation of senior Chinese officials are in Washington next week for IMF and World Bank meetings.


• 
  China Customs will no longer supervise goods and articles included in the management of drugs, veterinary drugs, and medical devices, while it will no longer supervise import and export of microbial agents for environmental protection with these goods to no longer be supervised as special items entering and leaving China.


• 
  Japan Economic Minister Akazawa plans to visit the US for tariff talks from April 30th, while it was also reported that the US told Japan it cannot give special treatment regarding tariffs during talks held earlier this month, according to NHK citing multiple Japanese government sources.


• Taiwan's representative to the US said Taiwan is willing to increase purchases of weapons and energy from the US to reduce its trade deficit.


• 
  UK Chancellor Reeves said the UK will not rush trade talks with the US and will not relax food standards to secure a deal, while she added that UK borrowing data reinforces the importance of controlling the public finances.


• White House said regarding the EU fine on Meta (META) and Apple (AAPL) that novel forms of economic extortion will not be tolerated.


• 
  Swiss Economy Minister said he held a productive meeting with USTR Greer to discuss bilateral trade relations and is looking forward to future exchanges and continued collaboration.


• 
  Chile’s President said the best way to respond to this trade war is not with high-sounding statements, while they are not going to respond with retaliation and are going to respond with greater integration. Furthermore, he said they must continue working hard to facilitate customs processes and promote investments to improve logistics.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• 
  Fed Beige Book stated economic activity was little changed since the previous report, but uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across reports. Furthermore, just five Districts saw slight growth, three Districts noted activity was relatively unchanged, and the remaining four Districts reported slight to modest declines.
  


• 
  Fed's Hammack (2026 voter) said uncertainty is a big issue in the economy and is causing businesses to pause, while she added that an incredibly high bar exists for the Fed to step in and they have not seen the need for Fed market intervention. Hammack also commented that recent market troubles were a risk transfer and that markets were functioning, as well as noted it is not a good time to be pre-emptive amid policy uncertainty and reiterated now is a good time for monetary policy to take its time.
  


• 
  US House Republicans will seek a USD 150bln Pentagon spending hike as part of their party-line mega bill, according to sources cited by Politico.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• 
  APAC stocks were ultimately mixed despite the positive handover from Wall Street - the risk momentum waned overnight as trade uncertainty lingered owing to the mixed signals from the US.


• 
  ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in mining stocks and tech, with gold producers buoyed by a rebound in the precious metal.


• 
  Nikkei 225 advanced at the open but gradually pared most of the gains following firmer Services PPI data from Japan and after a report that the US told Japan it cannot give it special treatment regarding tariffs during talks held earlier this month.


• 
  Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued following the mixed signals from the US as a report noted the White House was mulling cutting China tariffs by around half to de-escalate the trade war although officials declared they are not considering something unilaterally. Furthermore, President Trump stated it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down and if they don't have a deal, they will set the tariff but said they are having daily talks with China.


• 
  US equity futures marginally eased back overnight after the prior day's relief rally petered out owing to the conflicting signals from the US on tariffs.


• 
  European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down U/C after the cash market closed with gains of 2.8% on Wednesday.

FX

• 
  DXY slightly softened overnight as it took a breather following the prior day's advances that saw the DXY briefly approach just shy of the 100.00 level after President Trump quashed the idea of firing Fed Chair Powell and amid tariff-related updates including reports that the White House is looking at cutting tariffs on Chinese imports by around half. Nonetheless, the tailwinds for the dollar have since petered out as trade uncertainty lingered with the White House Press Secretary noting that that there will be no unilateral reduction in tariffs and that China needs to make a deal, while Trump also suggested that car tariffs on Canada could go up which effectively nullified an earlier report that he was planning to exempt carmakers from some US tariffs.


• 
  EUR/USD rebounded from this week's lows but remained beneath the 1.1400 level with price action in the single currency predominantly driven as a counterparty to recent dollar swings, while ECB speakers did little to shift the dial.


• 
  GBP/USD was little changed with price action indecisive in quiet trade and despite comments from BoE Governor Bailey who warned that they have to take the risk to growth from tariffs very seriously.


• 
  USD/JPY pulled back from the 143.00 territory after rallying yesterday owing to the positive risk appetite and stronger buck, while recent data showed firmer Services PPI from Japan.


• 
  Antipodeans were uneventful amid a lack of tier-1 data releases and the somewhat mixed risk appetite in Asia.


• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2098 vs exp. 7.3111 (Prev. 7.2116).

FIXED INCOME

• 
  10yr UST futures rebounded from the prior day's trough following the recent whipsawing and curve flattening after President Trump softened his tone on Powell but continued to call for lower rates.


• 
  Bund futures regained some composure after declining yesterday alongside the heightened risk appetite, while participants look ahead to German Ifo data.


• 
  10yr JGB futures clawed back opening losses albeit with demand constrained by firmer Services PPI data and ultimately mixed results from the latest 2yr JGB auction.

COMMODITIES

• 
  Crude futures were contained after the prior day's losses owing to bearish supply-side headlines including reports that some OPEC+ members want the group to approve another accelerated output increase for June.


• 
  Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister said Kazakhstan is committed to constructive work with OPEC+ and is fulfilling its OPEC+ obligations, while the official added that Kazakhstan has an ongoing dialogue with OPEC+ on oil production and seeks mutually acceptable solutions with OPEC+.
  


• 
  Spot gold rebounded overnight amid a softer dollar and reclaimed the USD 3,300/oz level as demand returned following the 2-day slide from record highs seen earlier in the week.


• 
  Copper futures were lacklustre with price action indecisive amid the mixed risk appetite in Asia.

CRYPTO

• 
  Bitcoin trickled lower throughout the session and returned to beneath the USD 93,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• 
  China issued its new market access "Negative List" in which the number of items in the negative list was reduced to 106 from 117, while China's 2025 negative list for market access removed eight national access restrictions and partially liberalises eight national measures including for telecommunications services, TV production, pharmaceuticals, internet information services for drugs and medical devices, and forest seed imports.


• 
  South Korea Information Protection Agency said DeepSeek transferred user information and prompts without permission, according to Yonhap.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Services PPI (Mar) 3.10% (Prev. 3.00%, Rev. 3.20%)


• South Korea GDP QQ (Q1 A) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)


• South Korean GDP YY (Q1 A) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 1.2%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel's army carries out a series of bombing operations in the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.


• Iran's Foreign Minister said the US goal of Iran not having nuclear weapons is achievable but noted impractical and illogical demands will cause problems.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian air defence units were active around Kyiv and witnesses reported several explosions and drones in the air, while the second largest city of Kharkiv was also under missile attack with explosions heard.


• 
  Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine and European states 'presented their inputs at talks' and he hopes 'joint work' will lead to lasting peace, while he added that emotions ran high on Wednesday.


• 
  US President Trump posted on Truth that Ukrainian President Zelensky is boasting on the front page of WSJ that “Ukraine will not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea”, while Trump added that “This statement is very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia...He has nothing to boast about! The situation for Ukraine is dire — He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country." Trump added that "...We are very close to a Deal, but the man with “no cards to play” should now, finally, GET IT DONE".
  


• 
  US Special Envoy Kellogg said there were positive talks in London with Ukraine. It was separately reported that President Trump’s admin did not feel that they were at a decisive point in the ongoing talks with Ukraine which led to Secretary of State Rubio cancelling his participation in Ukraine talks in London on Wednesday, according to sources cited by CNN.


• UK Foreign Office said Ukraine talks in London made significant progress on reaching a common position on the next steps. All parties reiterated their strong support for US President Trump's commitment to stopping the killing and achieving a just and lasting peace.


• 
  US Treasury Secretary Bessent met with Ukraine's PM Shmyhal and Finance Minister Marchenko, while he reaffirmed US dedication to secure peace and emphasised the need to conclude technical talks and sign an economic partnership between the US and Ukraine as soon as possible.


• 
  US Envoy Witkoff is expected to meet Russian President Putin on Friday, according to Axios.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• BoE Governor Bailey said fragmenting the world economy will be bad for growth and that the UK is an open economy so US relations with the rest of the world matter, while they do have to take the risk to growth from tariffs very seriously.


• ECB President Lagarde said levies are probably more disinflationary than inflationary and the net effect of tariffs is still uncertain.


• ECB's Chief Economist Lane said inflation should settle around the target in the absence of new shocks.


• 
  ECB's Knot said a US tariff of 25% on imports from Europe would lower Euro area growth by about 0.3% and more with retaliation, while tariffs would leave a persistent decrease in output. Knot added that in the near term, inflation might well fall faster than in the March projections due to Euro appreciation, energy prices and the negative impacts of uncertainty and tariffs on growth, as well as noted that over the medium term, there is still a risk that disruptions in global supply chains will put upward pressure on prices.


• ECB's Muller said it is too soon to say whether June will be a cut or a pause, while he added monetary policy is no longer restrictive and rates may need to be cut below neutral on trade.


• ECB's Villeroy said tariff impact on Euro-zone inflation is more uncertain and it is appropriate that the ECB is likely to cut further this year, while he said the inflation impact may be on the downside overall.

24 Apr 2025 - 06:30- EquitiesGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk