Newsquawk Daily European Equity Opening News - 30th July 2025

ASIA

APAC stocks traded mixed following the subdued handover from Wall St, where the S&P 500 snapped a six-day win streak and as participants braced for approaching key events, including the FOMC and several megacap earnings releases. ASX 200 advanced with gains led by strength in Real Estate and Consumer Staples, while stocks also benefited from the softer yield environment after CPI data either matched or printed below forecasts. Nikkei 225 lacked conviction amid little pertinent catalysts, and as the BoJ kicked off its two-day policy meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the mainland underpinned following the conclusion of the two-day talks between the US and China, where negotiators were pushing for a 90-day truce extension and await a sign-off from US President Trump.

Toyota (7203 JT) - June parent-only global vehicle production rose 7.4% Y/Y to 854,565 vehicles and parent-only global sales increased 1.7% Y/Y to 867,906 vehicles. (Newswires)

EUROPEAN CLOSES

CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.84% at 5,382, Dax 40 +0.95% at 24,198, FTSE 100 +0.60% at 9,136, CAC 40 +0.72% at 7,857, FTSE MIB +1.23% at 41,234, IBEX 35 +0.90% at 14,348, PSI +0.19% at 7,688, SMI +0.30% at 11,950, AEX +0.21% at 910

SECTORS: Telecoms 1.45%, Industrials 1.22%, Financials 1.09%, Energy 0.43%, Consumer Stpl 0.41%, IT 0.22%, Utilities -0.06%, Consumer Disc -0.56%, Materials -0.79%, Healthcare -1.76%

FTSE 100

HSBC (HSBA LN) - Q2 (USD) pre-tax profit 6.30bln (exp. 6.99bln), NII 8.2bln (exp. 10.5bln), Revenue 16.5bln (exp. 16.7bln). Now targets ROTE in "mid-teens" through to FY27. Affirms FY25/26 ROTE. announces up to USD 3bln buyback and declares second interim dividend USD 0.10/shr. Elsewhere, HSBC’s Swiss private bank is under early-stage investigations by Swiss and French authorities over alleged money laundering linked to two historical banking relationships, Bloomberg reports. The bank said the potential impact could be significant, but it is currently unable to predict the outcome. (Newswires/Bloomberg) HSBC shares fell around 3% in Hong Kong trade

Shell (SHEL LN) - Shell-led LNG Canada faces technical problems with the startup of Kitimat plant in British Columbia, while LNG Canada expects to increase exports as the plant stabilises. (Newswires)

OTHER UK COMPANIES

Just Eat Takeaway (JET LN) - Q2 (EUR): Revenue 1.75bln (exp. 1.77bln). Reiterated guidance for 2025; Adj. EBITDA at the lower end of the range. (Newswires)

BROKER MOVES

Croda (CRDA LN) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan

DAX

Adidas (ADS GY) - Q2 (EUR): Op. Profit 546mln (exp. 503.1mln), Revenue 6.95bln (exp. 6.21bln). Highlights negative FX translation impact of around EUR 300mln on sales. Negative tariff impact of double-digit millions. Notes that latest indications of tariffs will increase cost of production in the us, with up to a EUR 200mln impact for rest of the year. Affirms FY25 outlook; stil sees FY Op. Profit 1.7-1.8bln (exp. 2.01bln). (Newswires)

BASF (BAS GY) - Q2 (EUR): Adj. EPS 0.48 (exp. 0.17), Adj. EBIT 810mln (exp. 758mln), Revenue 15.8bln (exp. 15.78bln). Sees FY Adj. EBITDA 7.3-7.7bln (exp. 7.54bln). Notes that based on market demand, chemical products will grow less strong than expected in 2025. Still not possible to fully assess tariff effects. (Newswires)

Siemens Healthineers (SHL GY) - Q3 (EUR): Revenue 5.66bln (exp. 5.66bln), Adj. EBIT 953mln (exp. 890mln). Sees FY Adj. EPS 2.30-2.45 (exp. 2.375), Sees FY Comparable Sales Growth +5.5% to +6%. Says against the backdrop of a significant rev. decline in the prior year quarter, China region achieved strong growth. CFO says there are no signs of a sustainable market recovery in China just yet. (Newswires)

Mercedes Benz (MBG GY) - Q2 2025 (EUR): Revenue 33.2bln (prev. 36.7bln Y/Y), Adj. EBIT 1.99bln (exp. 1.59bln); sees FY cars Adj. RoS 4-6% (exp. 5.13%); sales now seen significantly below 2024 levels, with sales in H2 similar to H1. Outlook: "Based on the updated sales expectations in the automotive segments, the Mercedes-Benz Group is now expecting a significant decrease in revenue". Cars: "...unit sales for the full year to be significantly below the previous year’s level. Due to the expected drop in unit sales and weaker-than-expected pricing, as well as the import tariffs included for the first time in the forecast, the adjusted return on sales is forecast to be in the range of 4-6%". Vans: "...unit sales to be significantly below the previous year’s level. Adjusted return on sales is now expected to be in a range of 8-10%. The decrease is due to the expected drop in unit sales and the tariff increases taken into account for the first time in the forecast." Auto Markets: "Customer demand is expected to remain rather weak..." "...the global car market for 2025 as a whole is likely to remain at the previous year’s level"; Europe same Y/Y, USA to decrease slightly, China slightly above.

OTHER GERMAN COMPANIES

Auto 1 (AG1 GY) - Q2 (EUR): Revenue 1.97bln (exp. 1.82bln). Increases its FY unit guidance to 722-817k (prev. guided 735-795k). (Newswires)

Evotec (EVT GY) - Co. and Sandoz (SDZ SW) planning a potential sale of just Evotec Biologics Toulouse site; non-binding agreement for USD 300mln sale. Retains economic upside through rev. and royalties. (Newswires)

Kion (KGX GY) - H1 (EUR): Revenue 5.49bln, -4.2% Y/Y, Adj. EBIT 385mln (prev. 447mln Y/Y). Confirms outlook. (Newswires)

BROKER MOVES

CAC

Capgemini (CAP FP) - H1 (EUR): Revenue 11.1bln (exp. 11.1bln), Op. Income 1.38bln (exp. 1.37bln), Net Income 835mln (prev. 724mln Y/Y). Narrows FY25 Revenue -1 to +1% Y/Y (prev. guided -2% to +2% Y/Y). Launches new EUR 2bln multi-year buyback programme. (Newswires)

Danone (BN FP) - H1 (EUR): Net Income 1.04bln (exp. 1.22bln), Recurring Op. 1.81bln (prev. 1.75bln Y/Y). Backs FY guidance. (Newswires)

Kering (KER FP) - H1 2025 (EUR): Revenue 7.587bln (exp. 7.642bln), EPS 3.86 (prev. 7.16 Y/Y), Operating margin 12.8%, Net income 474mln (prev. 878mln Y/Y). Q2: Revenue 3.70bln, -15% comp. change (exp. -13%). Gucci revenue 1.46bln, -25% in comp. change. Commentary: CFO says US tariffs are 'manageable' and there could be second wave of price hikes in Autumn. Planning up to 80 net store closures in 2025. Targeting a reduction of group opex by a mid to high single-digit rate this year. Targets proceeds from disposal of real estate and other assets of 1.7bln in H2 2025 and onwards. Exec says Gucci is slightly improving going into Q3. There are no plans for brand disposals. Working on further real estate deals in NY, Milan, and Paris but not ready to make deal at any price. Confident will be able to reach additional funds from real estate deals by early 2026. Notice consumer is more discerning in China. Do not know yet when trends will change in China. Expect H2 gross margins to be quite similar to H1. There is a little bit better consumer confidence and traffic in US. Expect more net store closures in 2026 and 2027. (Newswires)

L'Oreal (OR FP) - Q2 25 (EUR): Sales 10.74bln (exp. 10.93bln), +2.4% like-for-like (exp. +2.9%). H1 operating margin 21.1%, +30bps y/y. H1 net profit (excl. non-recurring items) 3.78bln, +1.0% y/y. CEO Commentary: Notes that the EU–US trade deal is not favourable for European cosmetics. Warns that fighting for an exemption to tariffs is necessary, as they would be “costly” for cosmetics. Still evaluating responses to tariffs, including possible price increases or production shifts. L’Oréal remains positive on the U.S. market. The company has some pricing power for fragrances but must consider demand elasticity China is "not really rebounding". (Newswires)

Pernod Ricard (RI FP)/ Remy Cointreau (RCO FP)/ LVMH (MC FP) - French Finance Minister Lombard says continuing talks to try and get tariff exemptions for wines and spirits with the US. (Newswires)

OTHER FRENCH COMPANIES

Nexans (NEX FP) - H1 (EUR): Revenue 4.69bln (exp. 3.51bln). Co. announces the departure of its deputy CEO and CFO; co. is searching for a replacement. (Newswires)

Worldline (WLN FP) - H1 (EUR): Adj. EBITDA 401mln (exp. 433mln), FCF 40mln (exp. 23mln). Co. takes a EUR 4.1bln goodwill impairment on merchant services. Announced divestment to Magellan; deal valued up to EUR 410mln. (Newswires)

BROKER MOVES

PAN EUROPE

Banco BPM (BAMI IM) - CEO said looking at extraordinary operations and several options on the table. (Newswires)

Caixabank (CABK SM) - Q2 (EUR): Adj. Net Income 1.48bln (prev. 1.67bln Y/Y), NII 2.64bln (exp. ). Sees FY25 rev. from services up "mid-single digit". NII improvement exp. to accelerate from H2'26. (Newswires)

Ferrovial (FER SM) - H1 (EUR): Net Profit 540mln, +30% Y/Y, Adj. EBITDA 655mln (prev. 603mln Y/Y) (Newswires)

Grifols (GRF SM) - H1 2025 (EUR): Net Revenue 3.67bln (prev. 3.44bln Y/Y), PBT 306mln (prev. 114mln Y/Y); reaffirms FY25 guidance. (Newswires)

Recordati (RECI IM) - H1 25 (EUR): Revenue 1.32bln, +11.7% Y/Y, net profit 216.1mln, confirms 2025 guidance. (Newswires)

Solvay (SOLB BB) - Q2 (EUR): Revenue 1.1bln (exp. 1.11bln), EBITDA 230mln (exp. 230mln) Sees cost savings to exceed prior indication of EUR 200mln. (Newswires)

Santander (SAN SM) - Q2 2025 (EUR) Revenue 14.5bln (exp. 15.5bln), Net 3.43bln (exp. 3.45bln), NII 10.59bln (exp. 11.1bln), PBT 4.42bln (exp. 5.19bln), CET1 13% (exp. 12.9%). (Newswires)

Telefonica (TEF SM) - Q2 (EUR): Adj. EBITDA 2.91bln (Exp. 2.93bln), Revenue 8.95bln (exp. 8.95bln). Affirms guidance. (Newswires)

UniCredit (UCG IM) - CEO says Banco BPM (BAMI IM) deal became a drag. On Commerzbank (CBK GY), exactly where "we" want to be.

BROKER MOVES

Heineken (HEIA NA) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC

Repsol (REP SM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Berenberg

SMI

Logitech (LOGN SW) - Logitech US shares rose 0.9% in extended trading after it beat Q2 estimates. Growth was driven by strong business demand and Asia Pacific performance. Margins fell 120bps Y/Y due to tariffs and promotions, partially offset by price hikes and cost cuts. Logitech plans to reduce China production from 40% to 10% by end-2025, shifting to Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, and Mexico. Q2 adj. EPS 1.26 (exp. 1.08), Q2 revenue USD 1.15bln (exp. 1.13bln). Sees Q3 revenue between USD 1.15-1.19bln, with operating income between USD 180-200mln. (Newswires)

UBS (UBSG SW) - Q2 (USD) Net 2.40bln (exp. 2.05bln), PBT 2.19bln (exp. 1.93bln), Revenue 12.11bln (exp. 11.94bln), NII 1.96bln (prev. 1.6bln). Outlook: Q3 began with strong market performance in risk assets, particularly international equities, combined with a weak US dollar. "Investor sentiment remains broadly constructive, tempered by persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. Against this backdrop, our client conversations and deal pipelines indicate a high level of readiness among investors and corporates to deploy capital, as conviction around the macro-outlook strengthens" NII seen broadly stable, a low single-digit % increase in USD terms.

OTHER SWISS COMPANIES

BROKER MOVES

SCANDINAVIA

BROKER MOVES

Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; PT cut to DKK 375 (prev. 700).

US

Booking Holdings (BKNG) - Topped expectations for Q2, though its shares slipped 2% in extended trading with traders citing a tepid outlook. Q2 adj. EPS 55.40 (exp. 50.40), Q2 revenue USD 6.8bln (exp. 6.55bln). Q2 gross bookings rose 13% Y/Y to USD 46.7bln, with USD 309mln room nights booked (+8%). Sees Q3 revenue growth of 7-9% (exp. 8.7bln), gross bookings growth of +8-10%; sees Q3 room night growth of around 4.5% (exp. 5.5%), citing increased economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Guides FY25 revenue and gross bookings growth in low double digits. CEO noted strong Q2 room night growth +8%, and double-digit gains in revenue and gross bookings, beating internal expectations. Connected Trip transactions rose over 30% Y/Y, now in the low double-digit share of total transactions. Flight tickets rose 44%. It said the US remained its slowest-growing region.

Electronic Arts (EA) - Q1 EPS 0.79 (exp. 0.10), Q1 revenue USD 1.671bln (exp. 1.24bln), Q1 net bookings USD 1.3bln (exp. 1.29bln). Sees Q2 revenue between USD 1.75–1.85bln, and Q2 EPS 0.29-0.46; Q2 net bookings between USD 1.80–1.90bln (exp. 2.01bln), citing cautious consumer spending amid inflation and trade concerns; the bookings forecast includes a 4% headwind from Ultimate Edition returns. EA expects a more normalised sales curve for College Football 26, partially offset by Madden NFL 26. FY outlook remains unchanged; sees net bookings between USD 7.60–8.00bln, revenue between USD 7.10–7.50bln, EPS between 3.09-3.79. Plans to return 80%+ of FCF via buybacks/dividends through FY27.

Mondelez International (MDLZ) - Shares fell 3% afterhours, despite beating in Q2, as the company noted weakness in North America, and only maintained guidance. Q2 adj. EPS 0.73 (exp. 0.68), Q2 revenue USD 8.98bln (exp. 8.87bln). Quarterly dividend raised to 0.50/shr. North America sales declined more than expected amid US consumer anxiety. CEO cited concerns over finances and inflation. Sees FY adj. EPS growth of -10%, FY revenue growth +5%; maintains organic net revenue growth 2025 outlook, despite macro uncertainty.

PPG Industries (PPG) - PPG Q2 profit slightly missed estimates due to divestitures and weaker demand in Europe. Q2 adj. EPS 2.22 (exp. 2.23), Q2 revenue USD 4.195bln (exp. 4.16bln); net sales declined to USD 4.19bln (prev. 4.24bln). Architectural and industrial coatings sales fell 5%, while performance coatings rose 7%, driven by aerospace and marine demand. Backed FY outlook; sees FY adj. EPS between 7.75-8.05 (exp. 7.86). Said positive volume growth momentum is expected to accelerate in H2 2025.

Starbucks (SBUX) - Shares gained 4.7% in extended trading after a revenue beat due to China strength, and as it progresses with its turnaround strategy. Q3 adj. EPS 0.50 (exp. 0.64), Q3 revenue 9.5bln (exp. 9.31bln); exec said significant non-recurring investment in leadership experience and discrete tax item negatively impacted Q3 EPS by 0.11. Q3 comp sales in China +2%, North America -2%, US -2%, Global -2% (exp. -1.3%). CEO said the turnaround is ahead of schedule and US cafes showed improving engagement, though results show progress is slow. Revamp includes simplified menus, redesigned stores, and major labour investments in US operations, where US stores will get USD 500mln in added labour hours.

Tesla (TSLA), LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) - Tesla signed a USD 4.3bln deal to source lithium iron phosphate batteries from LG Energy. The batteries will be made at LG’s US plants but used for energy storage systems, not in Tesla vehicles. It marks Tesla’s second South Korean partnership this month.

Visa (V) - Visa’s shares fell 2% in extended trading after Q3 results beat estimates but the company kept its FY earnings outlook unchanged. Q3 adj. EPS 2.98 (exp. 2.85), Q3 revenue USD 10.2bln (exp. 9.84bln); Q3 payments volume +8%, cross-border volume total +12%, Processed transactions +10%. By unit, service revenue +9% Y/Y at USD 4.33bln, data processing revenue +15% Y/Y at USD 5.15bln, international transaction revenue +14% Y/Y at USD 3.63bln. Sees Q4 net revenue growth high-single-digit to low-double-digit Y/Y; operating expense growth seen in the high-single-digit to low-double-digit; EPS growth high-single-digit Y/Y. for the FY, sees net revenue growth low-double-digits, operating expense growth high-single-digit to low-double-digit, and EPS growth in the low-teens.

30 Jul 2025 - 07:00- EquitiesGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk