Newsquawk Daily European Equity Opening News - 15th April 2025

ASIA

APAC stocks traded with a predominantly positive bias following on from the gains on Wall St where sentiment was underpinned by the recent US tariff exemptions and dovish comments by Fed's Waller. ASX 200 was led higher by strength in healthcare and financials but with the gains capped by a lack of fresh drivers and with very few clues from the RBA Minutes regarding when the next rate move will occur. Nikkei 225 outperformed with automakers among the best performers in the index after US President Trump suggested on Monday that he might temporarily exempt the auto industry from tariffs to give carmakers time to adjust their supply chains. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged with participants cautious after the US announced probes into pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, while local press noted domestic markets face liquidity pressures with more than CNY 570bln in reverse repo and MLF funds maturing this week, although the PBoC is expected to assist with liquidity.

Nissan (7201 JT) is to cut Japanese production of top-selling US model due to tariffs with the automaker to reduce domestic production of Rogue SUV by 13,000 vehicles between May and July

EUROPEAN CLOSES

CLOSES: DAX: +2.61% at 20,907, FTSE 100: +2.14% at 8,134, CAC 40: +2.37% at 7,273, Euro Stoxx 50: +2.28% at 4,896, AEX: +2.41% at 839, IBEX 35: +2.32% at 12,571, FTSE MIB: +2.88% at 35,007, SMI: +2.59% at 11,524, PSI: +0.95% at 6,583

SECTORS: Financials 3.21%, Healthcare 3.06%, Industrials 2.98%, Energy 2.88%, Telecoms 2.48%, IT 2.43%, Materials 2.10%, Consumer Disc 2.07%, Consumer Stpl 1.53%, Utilities 1.52%                         

FTSE 100

Schroders (SDR LN) - Benchmark Capital buys a minority stake in GBP 4bln Oculus Wealth Management network. (Newswires)

UK Consumption - UK consumers plan to 'buy British' amid Trump's trade war with around 71% of respondents in a survey by Barclays wanting to support UK businesses by buying items that were "made in Britain ", according to FT. (FT)

UK Barclaycard - Barclaycard UK March Consumer Spending rose 0.5% Y/Y (prev. +1.0%); Barclays UK Chief Economist said "We expect spending to remain muted through mid-2025, before picking up into 2026 as interest rates easing starts to be felt and uncertainty begins to normalise". (Newswires)

UK BRC - UK BRC Total Sales YY (Mar) 1.1% (Prev. 1.1%); Retail Sales YY (Mar) 0.9% (Prev. 0.9%); BRC Chief said "Despite a challenging global geopolitical landscape, the small increase in both food and non-food sales masked signs of underlying strengthening of demand". (Newswires)

OTHER UK COMPANIES

De La Rue (DLAR LN) - Co. is reportedly to recommend the GBP 1.30/shr buyout offer from Atlas Holdings, via Sky News citing sources; deal could be announced Tuesday morning. (Sky News) Co. closed at GBP 1.12/shr

BROKER MOVES

Rotork (ROR LN) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC

DAX

Bayer (BAYN GY) - CEO says "well prepared to deal with potential US tariffs on prescription drug imports". (Newswires)

OTHER GERMAN COMPANIES

BROKER MOVES

Adidas (ADS GY) initiated with Hold at Berenberg

Aixtron (AIXA GY) initiated with Reduce at HSBC

CAC

LVMH (MC FP) - Q1 2025 (EUR): Revenue 20.31bln (exp. 21.14bln), Organic revenue -3% (exp. +1.1%); Fashion and leather organic sales -5% (exp. -0.55%) Wines and Spirits organic sales -9% (exp. -4.5%). US sales -3% in Q1, Asia sales ex Japan -11%. Commentary: US saw a slight decline, despite good performance in fashion & leather goods in watches and jewellery. In a disrupted geopolitical and economic environment, LVMH remains both vigilant and confident at start of the year. Post-earnings call China trends consistent with last year in Q1. US demand for leather, fashion and watches, jewellery remained well-oriented, accelerated modestly. Best way in downturn cycle is to stay focused. Louis Vuitton continues to outperform other brands, Dior still slightly below average. Main swing factor in Q1 is really linked to change of Chinese demand in Japan following last year's surge. Did not see a major change in trends when asked on effect's from Trump's tariff policies. Wine/Spirit and Beauty divisions likely most affected by tariff fall out. Aspirational clientele more exposed to tariff fallout. Still don't see prices as growth driver. Adjusting prices is lever they consider to offset currency changes. Believe they have room to adjust marketing costs which they'll do when needed. Margins will certainly not approve in H1. No specific change in trends with aspirational shoppers in Q1. US manufacturing operations account for around one third of local Louis Vuitton sales. See some capacity to increase US production presence, will see at what pace and how much. Price increases are one path to offset higher costs from US tariffs, but not the only one and depends on different brands. Shipped some wine and spirits stock to US in advance, which gives a bit of time to reflect on price policy. No change in domestic demand in China. US demand held up pretty well. Talk of potential alcohol spinoff is false information. Always looking to consolidate its leadership. Sephora having a 'bit less' momentum in e-commerce in US and Amazon is being very aggressive. Main drag on US sales was Sephora. Beauty, Cognac also heavily affected by turbulence in US. Can increase LV's and Tiffany's US production footprint, but cannot do it overnight. CFO: Says can increase Louis Vuitton's and Tiffany's US production footprint, but "can't do it overnight". Not radically changing production capacity in the US. LVMH has a 2.07% weighting in the STOXX 600, making it the fourth largest in the index; holds a 6.61% weighting in the EURO STOXX 50, making it the second largest in the index; holds a 8.28% weighting in the CAC 40, making it the largest in the index.

Publicis (PUB FP) - Q1 (EUR): Revenue 3.54bln (exp. 3.43bln). Confirms 2025 guidance. (Newswires)

Sanofi (SAN FP) - Sanofi’s respiratory pipeline advances with new data in asthma and plans for new clinical studies in COPD. (Sanofi)

OTHER FRENCH COMPANIES

JCDecaux (DEC FP) - Wins a 9 year urban furniture contract. (Newswires)

Valneva (VLA FP) - Valneva receives first marketing authorization for IXCHIQ in a chikungunya endemic country. (Newswires)

BROKER MOVES

LVMH (MC FP) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT cut to EUR 590 (prev. 740)

PAN EUROPE

Ageas (AGS BB) - Launches offering to raise EUR 525mln through ABB of newly issued ordinary shares to partly finance the acquisition of Esure. (Newswires)

Banco BPM (BAMI IM), Credit Agricole (ACA FP) - Credit Agricole has increased its stake in Banco BPM to 19.8%, following approval from the ECB. the move comes as Banco BPM faces an unsolicited takeover bid from UniCredit (UCG IM). Credit Agricole also plans to exercise its right to physical delivery of shares, which will further raise its stake. (Newswires)

Galp (GALP PL) - Q1 Sales of Oil Products 1.6mln tonnes, -10% Q/Q. (Newswires)

Ryanair (RYA ID) - CEO O'Leary says they may delay deliveries of Boeing (BA) craft if they become more expensive due to tariffs. Currently scheduled to receive 25 craft from Boeing in August, planes are not needed until "kind of March, April 2026". (FT)

Stellantis (STLAM IM / STLAP FP) - Stellantis investors are protesting the EUR 23.1mln payout to former CEO Carlos Tavares for the year 2024, despite declining sales and earnings. Allianz Global Investors and proxy advisors are urging shareholders to reject the company’s remuneration report, citing poor performance in the US, model delays in Europe, and management conflicts, Bloomberg reports. (Bloomberg)

TomTom (TOM2 NA) - Q1 (EUR): Net Sales 3mln (prev. -4.9mln Y/Y), Revenue 140mln (prev. 139mln Y/Y), FCF -3mln (prev. -9mln Y/Y). (Newswires)

Telecom Italia (TIT IM) - Deal includes possible price adjustment in case certain targets for Sparkle's 2025 EBITDA are not met. (Newswires)

BROKER MOVES

Arcadis (ARCAD NA) downgraded to Hold from Buy at ING

SMI

Sika (SIKA SW) - Q1 (CHF): Sales 2.67bln (exp. 2.73bln, prev. 2.64bln Y/Y). Notes of increased market uncertainties, citing trade conflicts - but suggests Co. is not directly affected by tariffs. Confirms 2025 and mid-term 2028 targets. (Newswires)

OTHER SWISS COMPANIES

Sulzer (SUN SW) - Q1 (CHF): Order Intake 1.02bln, stable Y/Y. Order Backlog 2.5bln (prev. 2.3bln Y/Y). Confirms 2025 guidance. (Newswires)

BROKER MOVES

Barry Callebaut (BARN SW) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays

Nestle (NESN SW) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at BNP Paribas

SCANDINAVIA

Avanza (AZA SS) - Q1 (SEK): Op. Income 1.15bln (exp. 1.1bln). (Newswires)

Carlsberg (CARLB DC) - CEO Aarup-Anderson said they are insulated from the US tariffs as they only sell a small amount to the US. However, the potential global slowdown and impact on consumer demand is a concern. (FT)

Ericsson (ERICB SS) - Q1 (SEK) Adj. EBIT 6.2bln (exp. 4.4bln), Net Sales 55.0bln (exp. 55.6bln), EPS 1.24 (exp. 0.77). Notes of increased uncertainty for Q2 outlook, citing tariffs. Guides Q2 Adj. Gross Margin 48-50%. Networks Adj. Op. Margin 20.1% (exp. 17.4%). Sees Q2 Network sales growth to similar 3yr average. (Newswires)

Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) - Novo Nordisk warns consumers about counterfeit Ozempic (semaglutide) injection 1 mg in the U.S. (Newswires)

BROKER MOVES

Volvo (VOLVA SS) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC

US

CLOSES: SPX +0.84% at 5,408, NDX +0.57% at 18,796, DJI +0.78% at 40,525, RUT +1.08% at 1,880.

SECTORS: Real Estate +2.15%, Utilities +1.75%, Consumer Staples +1.64%, Health +1.18%, Materials +1.09%, Industrials +1.04%, Financials +1.03%, Technology +0.63%, Communication Services +0.25%, Energy +0.25%, Consumer Discretionary -0.10%.

Dealmaking/M&A - FT writes that risky corporate borrowers within the US have been shut out of the bond market since tariffs were announced, which could threaten the tentative dealmaking rebound. (FT)

JPMorgan (JPM) - Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon sold 133,639 shares on April 14th at USD 235.6774/shr. (Newswires)

Netflix (NFLX) - Co. aims to achieve a USD 1tln market capitalization and double its revenue by 2030, via WSJ Executives were optimistic about Netflix's (NFLX) growth prospects at the streamer’s annual business review meeting last month, despite growing concerns on Wall Street about the economy and trade-policy uncertainty. (Newswires)

US-Mexico - Starting in July, the US will impose a 21% tariff on most tomato imports from Mexico, citing "unfairly priced" shipments. Mexico is the largest source of US farm imports, including tomatoes, fresh berries, and other vegetables, Bloomberg notes. (Bloomberg)

15 Apr 2025 - 06:54- Geopolitical- Source: Newsquawk