Morgan Stanley top 10 2018 FX trades
1) Long USD/CAD - Widening interest rate differentials and debt worries in Canada.
2) Long EUR/NOK - Evolving away from selling oil to the world, and moderating housing market.
3) Short CHF/JPY - An accommodative SNB and widening inflation differentials with Japan.
4) Short USD/JPY - BoJ shifting its yield curve control and Japanese repatriation.
5) Long EUR vs. AUD, NZD basket - High leverage and weakening housing markets vs. strong growth in EMU.
6) Long CLP/MXN - Mexican election and NAFTA uncertainty are likely to weigh on MXN.
7) Long PLN/HUF - Monetary policy divergence plus growth dynamics suggest PLN outperformance.
8) Short USD/MYR - Pick-up in growth, cheap valuations, higher oil prices and policy normalization.
9) Short AUD vs. KRW, TWD basket - Policy divergence and strong exports helping TWD and KRW.
10) Long IDR/PHP - IDR valuation and carry is attractive. PHP stays weak, given its twin deficit.
30 Nov 2017 - 10:41- ForexEconomic Commentary- Source: Morgan Stanley
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