Iranian deal will be signed in Vienna within the next 72 hours "what appears to be certain is that the deal will be reached.", according to journalist Reza Zandi

Via Twitter

Reaction details (13:29)

• Brent May 22 immediately moved lower from 116.40 to 114.60 before trimming some downside.

Analysis details (13:30)

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  An Iranian official said if US sanctions are lifted, Iran could boost its oil output to 4mln BPD from 2.5mln in about 3 months, according to Energy Intel. Despite sanctions, Argus estimated that Iran exported 789k BPD of crude in January (vs 705k Q4 2020 average vs 2.3mln BPD pre-sanction exports).


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  TD Securities sees roughly 200k BPD "fairly quickly" and another 1mln BPD over "a longer period of time"


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  S&P Platts sees 750k BPD of production growth within three months of sanctions relief, plus around 300k BPD of shipments from floating storage, lifting August crude and condensate exports to 1.75mln BPD.


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  ING says there is potential for additional supply of 1.3mln BPD "over time".


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  BofA says "Consensus appears to suggest a full return of production estimated at ~3.8mln BPD from 2.5mln BPD currently, of which some 500– 800k BPD could return fairly quickly"

03 Mar 2022 - 13:26- EnergyGeopolitical- Source: Twitter