IEA's Birol reiterates that the Middle East conflict is creating the largest ever supply disruption. Oil prices are significantly lower W/W. The reserve release provides a buffer, but is not a lasting solution.

IEA Action

• Barrels are flowing to Asia, as a result of IEA action.


• Over 20mln barrels in the Americas will stem from increased production.


• Monitoring to ensure barrels get to the market in a timely manner.


• Despite the huge release, still have a large stockpile. Can do more later, if required.


• Non-IEA nations are looking to see what support they can provide.

Focus Points

• The most important thing is the resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.


• Even if the Strait opened tomorrow, it would take time for flows to recover.

General Commentary

• The impact is most significant in Asia.


• The impact on consumers and similar is most notable in EM/developing markets.


• Middle East producers are being impacted.

Analysis details (14:09)

• On the 11th of March, the IEA recommendation saw them announce that members agreed to a 400mln barrel release. At the time, Birol said the release would occur over a timeframe appropriate to the circumstances of each member country and that further details would be provided.

16 Mar 2026 - 14:01- EnergyImportant- Source: IEA