IEA OMR: Revises down oil demand growth projections for 2022 by 70k BPD, amid China lockdowns and elevated prices
Russia related
-
Overall decline of Russian supply by 1.6mln BPD in May and 2mln BPD in June; could expand to circa. 3mln BPD from July onwards - Despite sanctions, total Russian oil exports increase MM in April by 620k BPD; Russia shut in nearly 1mln BPD of oil in April.
- New embargoes could accelerate a reorientation of trade flows of Russian oil towards Asia.
- Does not expect an acute supply deficit amid the deteriorating Russian supply situation.
China/COVID
- Expects steadily rising volumes from Middeast OPEC+ states and the US as COVID lockdowns in China sap demand.
Refinery Commentary
- Refinery runs set to increase by 4.7mln BPD between now and August, market tightness will continue
- Refinery margins have surged due to depleted product inventories and constrained refinery activtiy.
Analysis details (09:01)
- On May 10th, EIA STEO (May): US crude output to rise by 720k BPD to 11.91mln BPD in 2022 (prev. rise of 820k BPD in April), to rise 940k BPD in 2023 to 12.85mln BPD in 2023 (unchanged M/M)
- OPEC MOMR is due later on Thursday.
12 May 2022 - 09:00- EnergyImportant- Source: Newswires
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