IEA OMR (Oct): 2024 world oil demand growth forecast to 860k bpd (prev. forecast 900k); says China is the main drag on global oil demand growth, with China's demand expected to rise only 150k bpd in 2024

2025:

• Raises 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 1mln bpd, (prev. 950k bpd)

Geopolitical commentary: 

• Iran-Israel tension, says it stands ready to act if needed; IEA public oil stocks alone are over 1.2 billion barrels.

General:

• Notes OPEC+ spare production capacity stands at historic highs.
• Says that in the absence of a major disruption, the oil market is faced with a sizeable surplus in the new year.