German State CPIs: Reaction/Analysis ahead of the 13:00GMT mainland print

Reaction details (09:10)

• The 09:00GMT state CPI data spurred saw a modest hawkish reaction in Bunds and the EUR. Specifically, Bund Mar'24 fell from 135.51 to 135.20 before stabilising while EUR/USD spiked higher from 1.0818 to 1.0833.

Market pricing for the ECB, via Reuters, saw a hawkish move:

• April: -22.7bp (prev. -25bp)


• June: -50bp (prev. -53bp)


• 2024: -129bp (prev. -142bp) - note, much of this move proved shortlived.

Analysis details (09:10)

• A modest hawkish move (see reaction) as while the directional skew of the regional prints is in-fitting with expectations for the mainland (provided below), the easing in the Y/Y figure for some of the states is not quite of the same magnitude as the mainland implied; with particular reference to the Saxony and Baden-Wurttemberg Y/Y figures.


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  Overall, the state CPIs provide a slight hawkish bias to expectations for the 13:00GMT mainland Y/Y release, while the M/M is broadly in-line.

Mainland Expectations

• CPI: Y/Y 3.0% (prev. 3.7%); M/M 0.2% (prev. 0.1%)


• HICP: Y/Y 3.2% (prev. 3.8%); M/M -0.1% (prev. 0.2%)

31 Jan 2024 - 09:10- Fixed IncomeData- Source: Newsquawk