German North Rhine-Westphalia State CPI YY (Dec) 3.5% (Prev. 3.0%); Core 3.4% (prev. 3.7%)

• "The increase in prices for various household energies (+5.6 percent; including district heating in particular +40.0 percent) is due, among other things, to: This can be explained by the so-called base effect, which is related to the “December one-off payment” to relieve the burden on private households for natural gas and district heating in December 2022."


• "With this press release, the results of the consumer price index for North Rhine-Westphalia will be published for the last time at 7:30 a.m. The press release and the provision of the data in the various channels (e.g. state database and the social media profiles of the State Statistical Office) are planned for the first time at 10:00 a.m. with the January results on January 31st."

via NRW

Reaction details (06:36)

• Data which sparked some modest pressure in the EUR and upside in EGBs, a dovish reaction driven by the developments of the core figure and the impact of base effects on the energy related components particularly district heating. EUR/USD fell from 1.0932 to 1.920 while Bund Mar'24 lifted from 137.61 to 137.96 before paring half of the move.

Analysis details (06:34)

• Both metrics increased from the prior, in-fitting with expectations for the mainland figure due at 13:00GMT, though the M/M remained in negative territory despite consensus pointing to the mainland M/M lifting back above 0.0% and the Core Y/Y once again eased from the prior and as such potentially drove the dovish reaction seen in the EUR and in Bunds.
  


• Additionally, much of the upside in the energy-related components can be explained by base effects from December 2022's one-off payment to households to alleviate gas costs and for district heating.


• For the mainland, the Y/Y is seen at 3.7% (prev. 3.2%) and M/M at 0.1% (prev. -0.4%).


• As a side note from January's release onward, due January 31st, the North Rhine-Westphalia figure will be released at 09:00GMT (prev. 06:30GMT).

04 Jan 2024 - 06:30- ForexData- Source: Reuters