Fed Speak Primer for the Week: Fed Chair Powell due on Tuesday, Governor Cook also set to speak

Primer

We expect Fed speak this week to take a similar tone to recent commentary from officials and Chair Powell at the FOMC Press Conference in May, a message which stresses data dependence and recent disappointment in inflation, although it is unlikely the next move will be a hike and they instead will keep rates higher for longer. Some of the hawks may like to keep the option of a hike still on the table, however, in case inflation data deteriorates. Fed commentary from Wednesday onwards will be looked at to see how officials are feeling about the latest inflation data with CPI due Wednesday (PPI also due on Tuesday) and whether it has any implications to their thinking. Given Q1 inflation data was hot, but recent labour market metrics are showing signs of weakening (lower NFP, lower JOLTS), we will be looking to see if any make comments on the latest NFP report, but some since then have stated it does not show an unexpected weakening. Fed Chair Powell (pre NFP) said that an unexpected weakening of the labour market would be a reason for the Fed to cut rates, but it would take more than a couple of tenths rise in the unemployment rate for an unexpected weakening to trigger a rate cut.

Tuesday:

• 14:10 BST / 09:10 EDT: Fed Governor Cook speaks on growth and change at community development financial institutions at "Expanding Access to Capital for CDFIs," hosted by Federal Reserve Bank of New York


• 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT: Fed Chair Powell participates in moderated discussion with De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) President Klaas Knot at annual general meeting of the Foreign Bankers’ Association

Wednesday:

• 16:00 BST/ 11:00 EDT: Fed's Kashkari (2025 voter, hawk) participates in fireside chat on the economy


• 20:20 BST / 15:20 EDT: Federal Governor Bowman speaks on "Innovation and the Evolving Financial Landscape" at the DC Blockchain Summit 2024

Thursday:

• 15:00 /10:00 EDT: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr testifies at U.S. Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on oversight of financial regulators


• 15:30 / 10:30 EDT: Fed's Harker (2026 voter) speaks on "The Economic Impact of Higher Education and Healthcare Institutions" and participates in a conversation before hybrid 2024 Anchor Economy Conference


• 17:00 BST / 11:00 EDT: Fed's Mester (2024 voter, retiring) speaks on the economic outlook before the Wayne Economic Development Council Briefings for Business (B4B) event


• 20:50 BST / 15:50 EDT: Fed's Bostic speaks on the economic outlook in a moderated conversation hosted by the Jacksonville Business Journal

Friday:

• 15:15 BST / 10:15 EDT: Fed's Waller speaks on payments innovation, technical standards and the Fed’s roles at International Organization for Standardization Technical Committee

Saturday:

• 22:45 BST /17:45 EDT: Fed Governor Kugler speaks at University of Virginia 2024 Commencement Ceremony – Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy

14 May 2024 - 08:40- Fixed IncomeData- Source: Newsquawk