Fed Speak Primer For The Week: A plethora of Fed speak due, including Powell on the economic outlook on Wednesday

PRIMER: Attention this week on Fed speakers will be their response to the latest economic data. The Core PCE data was in line with expectations while headline M/M was slightly softer. Fed Chair Powell noted the PCE data was along the lines of what the Fed wants to see, noting "you won't see us overreacting" - a similar message to his March FOMC press conference. However, pre-PCE, Waller said that he believes it is appropriate to reduce the overall number of cuts, or push them further into the future in response to recent CPI data. It will be interesting to see if any of the upcoming Fed speakers are more aligned with Powell, or more aligned with Waller. It will also be many of the officials' first remarks since the March FOMC, therefore any information on what their rate cuts forecast were in the dot plots will also be key. Although the 2024 median dot was left unchanged, the composition of dots was more hawkish and now it would just take one member of the FOMC in line with the median to lift their 2024 dot to boost the median. Money market pricing has seen a hawkish response this week with the hot March ISM Manufacturing PMI data rising above 50 for the first time since October 2022 while the Prices Paid component also saw a notable increase, raising inflationary concerns. Any response from the Fed regarding this data will also be of note. Bear in mind, we are still due the ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, ahead of the March NFP on Friday. Money markets are now leaning more hawkish than the Fed dot plots with just 68bps of easing priced throughout the year, vs the 75bp implied in the Fed dot plots. 

WEEKLY SCHEDULE

Wednesday 3rd April: Bowman, Goolsbee, Powell, Barr, Kugler

• 14:45 BST / 09:45 EDT: Fed Governor Bowman (Voter, Hawk) to speak on Bank Liquidity, Regulation, and the Fed role as lender of last resort


• 17:00 BST / 12:00 EDT: Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter, Dove) to gives opening remarks virtually at a Chicago Fed event on "Preventing Elder Financial Exploitation".


• 17:10 BST / 12:10 EDT: Fed Chair Powell (Voter, Neutral) to speak on the economic outlook at the 2024 Business, Government & Society Forum at Stanford


• 18:10 BST / 13:10 EDT: Fed Vice Chair Barr (Voter, Neutral) to speak on the Community Reinvestment Act


• 21:30 BST / 16:30 EDT: Fed Governor Kugler (Voter, Neutral) to speak on the US Economy and Monetary Policy at an event hosted by Washington University in St Louis.

Thursday 4th April: Harker, Barkin, Goolsbee, Kashkari, Mester

• 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT: Fed's Harker (2026 voter, Neutral (Retiring 2025)) at a fireside chat on "Second Chance Employment"


• 17:15 BST / 12:15 EDT: Fed's Barkin (2024 voter, Neutral) to speak on the economic outlook before the Home Building Association of Richmond.


• 17:45 BST / 12:45 EDT: Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter, Dove) to partake in moderated Q&A before the Multi-Chamber Economic Outlook Luncheon and Expo.


• 19:00 BST / 14:00 EDT: Fed's Kashkari (2026 voter, Hawkish) participates in discussion on the US economy, the impact of inflation and the pandemic, and the boom of private credit and regulation in a "Linked Live" event


• 19:00 BST / 14:00 EDT: Fed's Mester (2024 voter, Hawkish) participates in conversation on the economic outlook before virtual Global Interdependence Center Executive Briefing

Friday 5th April: Musalem, Kugler, Collins, Barkin, Logan, Bowman

• 00:20 BST / 19:20 EDT (Thu): Fed's Musalem (2025 voter, Neutral) gives introductory remarks before the 2024 Women in Economics Symposium hosted by the St. Louis Fed - Musalem's Fed term starts April 2nd.


• 00:30 BST / 19:30 EDT (Thu): Fed Governor Kugler (Voter, Neutral) to speak on Enriching Data and Analysis in Economics with Real Life Experiences.


• 13:30 BST / 08:30 EDT: Fed's Collins (2025 voter, Neutral) gives welcome remarks before virtual Conference on the Financial Stability Implications of Stablecoins hosted by the Boston Fed


• 14:15 BST / 09:45 EDT: Fed's Barkin (Voter, Neutral) speaks before the Greater Baltimore Committee "Pulse Check: The Scorecard Summit 2024,"


• 16:00 BST / 11: 00 EDT: Fed's Logan (2026 Voter, Hawk) speaks before an event hosted by the Duke University Department of Economics


• 17:15 BST / 12:15 EDT: Fed Governor Bowman (Voter, Hawk) to speak on Risks and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy: Current & Past Considerations.

For all recent commentary, please see the Newsquawk Hawks and Doves - Federal Reserve.

03 Apr 2024 - 12:25- Fixed IncomeData- Source: Newsquawk