Fed's Williams says Fed's work to bring inflation back to 2% is not done; Fed can cut rates when confident inflation is moving to 2%

• Fed will need restrictive policy stance for some time.


• Outlook is still uncertain, rate decisions are to be made meeting-by-meeting.


• Rate decisions will be driven by totality of data.


• Risks to economy are two sided.


• Sees 2024 GDP at around 1.25%, unemployment at 4%, inflation at 2.25% and 2% in 2025 (Beneath median projections, see analysis)


• Things are looking very good on the jobs front.


• Inflation situation has improved quite a bit.


• Fed forecasts ‘meaningful’ progress in restoring economic balance.


• Fed balance sheet wind down working as planned.


• Fed not near point where banking sector liquidity is scarce.


• "In its plans, the FOMC said that to ensure a smooth transition it intends to slow and then stop the decline in the size of the balance sheet when reserve balances are somewhat above the level it judges to be consistent with ample reserves. So far, we don’t seem to be close to that point."

via NY Fed

Reaction details (20:45)

• T-Notes (H4) fell from 111-29 to 111-25+ within a few minutes.


• Money market Fed rate expectations are little change with c. 140bps of Fed cuts priced across 2024, with still c. 70% implied for a March cut.

Analysis details (20:18)

Fed December Summary of Economic Projections

10 Jan 2024 - 20:14- Fixed IncomeData- Source: NY Fed