Fed's Bostic (2024 voter) says there is "still a ways to go" on inflation even though the Fed has made tremendous progress; expects inflation to come down slowly and unevenly

• Pandemic policies left families and businesses in much stronger position; able to absorb restrictive policy.


• Expects tight labour market to continue moving forward.


• Paying a lot of attention to three and six-month inflation figures, they are coming down.


• Wages have been a trailing indicator and a way to retain workers.


• Do have to keep an eye out to ensure output does not become too weak.


• Businesses and employers still see economy as strong, with robust demand.


• Fed is in a good place with a pathway to fixing inflation without much labour pain.


• Businesses increasingly saying they do not have the same pricing power as early in the pandemic.


• Fed is not going to jump at the first data point.


• Policy will need to be resolute and patient.


• Sentiment about the economy may become more positive if wage gains continue to outpace inflation; eases the "sticker shock" of inflation.


• 
  Market's response to the Fed has been "interesting", will have to watch how it plays out.


• Budgetary trade-offs will become "more acute" due to higher debt servicing costs.


• Now is not the time to consider changing the inflation goal, but nothing should be etched in stone.


• No one should think 2% is the only number the Fed could have for inflation, but will keep it until price stability is restored.


• Fed cannot wait to get to 2% inflation to cut rates or it will "overshoot", that is the strategy behind rate cuts.


• Reiterates view of two rate cuts in 2024.


• There "is not going to be urgency" to back away from restrictive policy stance.

Analysis details (17:52)

• Bostic already said in a Reuters interview last Friday that he sees two Fed rate cuts in 2024 beginning "sometime" in Q3, which puts him on the hawkish side of the median SEP of three cuts, whilst seeing PCE ending 2024 at 2.4%, the same as the median.

19 Dec 2023 - 17:49- Fixed IncomeData- Source: Newswires