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Important
APRIL 19, 2023 AT 06:01 PM

Fed's Beige Book: Overall economic activity was little changed in recent weeks. Nine Districts reported either no change or only a slight change in activity this period while three indicated modest growth.

Source
SectionFed

Economic Activity

  • Overall economic activity was little changed in recent weeks.
  • Nine Districts reported either no change or only a slight change in activity this period while three indicated modest growth.
  • Expectations for future growth were mostly unchanged as well; however, two Districts saw outlooks deteriorate.
  • Consumer spending was generally seen as flat to down slightly amid continued reports of moderate price growth.
  • Auto sales remained steady overall, with only a couple of Districts reporting improved sales and inventory levels.
  • Travel and tourism picked up across much of the country this period. Manufacturing activity was widely reported as flat or down even as supply chains continued to improve.
  • Transportation and freight volumes were also flat to down, according to several Districts.
  • On balance, residential real estate sales and new construction activity softened modestly.
  • Nonresidential construction was little changed while sales and leasing activity was generally flat to down.
  • Lending volumes and loan demand generally declined across consumer and business loan types. 
  • Several Districts noted that banks tightened lending standards amid increased uncertainty and concerns about liquidity. 
  • The majority of Districts reported steady to increasing demand and sales for nonfinancial services.
  • Agriculture conditions were mostly unchanged in recent weeks while some softening was reported in energy markets.

Labor Markets

  • Employment growth moderated somewhat this period as several Districts reported a slower pace of growth than in recent Beige Book reports.
  • A small number of firms reported mass layoffs, and those were centered at a subset of the largest companies.
  • Some other firms opted to allow for natural attrition to occur, and to hire only for critically important roles.
  • Contacts reported the labor market becoming less tight as several Districts noted increases to the labor supply.
  • Additionally, firms benefited from better employee retention, which allowed them to hire for open roles while not constantly trying to back-fill positions.
  • Wages have shown some moderation but remain elevated.
  • Several Districts reported declining needs for off-cycle wage increases compared to last year.

Prices

  • Overall price levels rose moderately during this reporting period, though the rate of price increases appeared to be slowing.
  • Contacts noted modest-to-sharp declines in the prices of nonlabour inputs and significantly lower freight costs in recent weeks.
  • Nevertheless, producer prices for finished goods rose modestly this period, albeit at a slightly slower pace.
  • Selling price pressures eased broadly in manufacturing and services sectors.
  • Consumer prices generally increased due to still-elevated demand as well as higher inventory and labor costs.
  • Prices for homes and rents leveled out in most Districts but remained at near record highs.
  • Contacts expected further relief from input cost pressures but anticipated changing their prices more frequently compared to previous years.
Published: 04 / 19 / 2023 / 18:01Updated: 01 / 06 / 2024 / 13:39