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Fed's Beige Book: Inflationary pressures remained strong since the last report, with firms continuing to pass swiftly rising input costs through to customers

Important
SourceNewsquawk
SectionFed

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

  • Economic activity expanded at a moderate pace since mid-February.
  • Several Districts reported moderate employment gains despite hiring and retention challenges in the labor market.
  • Consumer spending accelerated among retail and non-financial service firms, as COVID-19 cases tapered across the country.
  • Manufacturing activity was solid overall across most Districts, but supply chain backlogs, labor market tightness, and elevated input costs continued to pose challenges on firms’ abilities to meet demand.
  • Vehicle sales remained largely constrained by low inventories.
  • Commercial real estate activity accelerated modestly as office occupancy and retail activity increased.
  • Districts’ contacts reported continued strong demand for residential real estate but limited supply.
  • Agricultural conditions were mixed across regions. Farmers were supported by surging crop prices, but drought conditions were a challenge in some Districts and increasing input costs were squeezing producer margins across the nation.
  • Outlooks for future growth were clouded by the uncertainty created by recent geopolitical developments and rising prices.

LABOR MARKETS

  • Employment increased at a moderate pace.
  • Demand for workers continued to be strong across most Districts and industry sectors.
  • But hiring was held back by the overall lack of available workers, though several Districts reported signs of modest improvement in worker availability.
  • Many firms reported significant turnover as workers left for higher wages and more flexible job schedules.
  • Persistent labor demand continued to fuel strong wage growth, particularly for footloose workers willing to change jobs.
  • Firms reported that inflationary pressures were also contributing to higher wages, and that higher wages were doing little to alleviate widespread job vacancies.
  • But some contacts reported early signs that the strong pace of wage growth had begun to slow.

PRICES

  • Inflationary pressures remained strong since the last report, with firms continuing to pass swiftly rising input costs through to customers.
  • Contacts across Districts, particularly those in manufacturing, noted steep increases in raw materials, transportation, and labor costs.
  • In multiple Districts, contacts reported spikes in prices for energy, metals, and agricultural commodities following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and several noted that COVID-19 lockdowns in China had worsened supply chain disruptions.
  • A few reports noted that input suppliers were making use of more flexible contract terms or only honoring price quotes for 24 hours.
  • Strong demand generally allowed firms to pass through input cost increases to customers, for example, via fuel surcharges for freight and airline fares.
  • However, contacts in a few Districts noted negative sales impacts from rising prices.
  • Firms in most Districts expected inflationary pressures to continue over the coming months.

Via The Fed

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