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Fed Chair Powell says US economy has been stronger than expected, this year is remarkable; monetary policy is generally working in ways that the Fed expected though some aspects are different

Important
SourceNewsquawk
SectionFed
  • Some households and businesses are not feeling higher rates.
  • It is hard to draw a direct line from things like higher bond yields to a monetary policy response.
  • Fed is not going to ignore a significant bond tightening, but Fed does not have to make a decision now.
  • Will be looking carefully at reasons behind the recent yield surge.
  • Fed is still trying to judge if it needs to do more; then will consider how long Fed needs to keep rates high. 
  • The bigger mistake remains not getting rates high enough.
  • Fed is in the range of restrictive policy, question of whether the neutral rate has risen is less interesting.
  • The fed-funds rate is around 5.3% and if expected one-year ahead inflation is around 3%, that implies a real rate above 2%. That's "well above" mainstream estimates of the neutral rate, and policy is "probably significantly restrictive".
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