Fed Chair Powell says policy rate may not have to rise as far as otherwise due to tightened bank credit conditions

Possible there will be continued supply shocks but hard to predict.
Positive supply shocks during globalization probably did help keep inflation low; those positive supply shocks are not likely to be repeated.
Cannot know how persistent pandemic shocks will be or what others might come along.
For policymakers central banks are still responsible for price stability regardless of supply shocks.
Labour market slack and inflation is not different from before the pandemic.
Labour market slack did not figure into early inflation, but do think it will be a factor going forward.
Inflation in non-housing services is particularly susceptible to labour outcomes.
Natural rate of unemployment probably rose sharply during the pandemic; Phillips curve may also have steepened.
Vacancies may have been a more important indicator during the pandemic.