EUROPEAN OPEN: PRU LN new business profit rises, launches USD 1.2bln buyback; ULVR LN mulls food unit separation; HFG GY sees FY revenue drop; BP LN to lock out 800 Whiting workers; Spain weighs more gas via NTGY SM pipeline

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  EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities opened mostly higher, though the FTSE 100 lags. APAC equities rose after gains on Wall Street, while oil retreated but remained above USD 100/bbl; Chinese AI stocks rose after Nvidia CEO made bullish comments on AI agents, and called OpenClaw the Next ChatGPT. Crude prices fell, but Brent remains above USD 100/bbl, after Iraq signed a deal with Kurdistan to resume exports via pipeline to Ceyhan, avoiding the Strait of Hormuz; the pipeline’s capacity is roughly 1.5-1.6mln BPD, according to recent Reuters reporting. Separately, Bloomberg said that oil traders are selling prompt barrels and buying cheaper longer-dated supplies as the US prepares a 172mln bbl SPR release structured as a loan; the first batch is expected to take four months to complete. Aluminium prices in China rose to a four-year high as the Iran war reduced global supply, but demand remained weak and inventories increased; primary stockpiles exceeded 1.3mln tons, the highest since 2020, with more exports potentially needed to reduce the surplus, Bloomberg said. Gold consolidated near USD 5,000/oz as investors looked ahead to the Fed policy announcement later today; the central bank is expected to stand pat on rates, as conflict-driven inflation pressures offset labour market weakness; markets now expect just one rate cut this year (see below for preview). The BoC is also expected to hold rates today (see below for preview).


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  STOCK SPECIFICS: In tech, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO said the company has received orders from China for H200 processors, and is restarting manufacturing after securing clearance from both sides; he also made bullish comments on AI agents, and called OpenClaw the Next ChatGPT. Alibaba (BABA) is raising prices for AI computing and storage products by up to 34% amid strong demand and higher infrastructure costs. In financials, Prudential (PRU LN) said new business profit rose +13% Y/Y to USD 2.78bln in 2025 (exp. 2.76bln), supported by growth in Hong Kong and China; it also announced an additional USD 1.2bln share buyback. FT reports that the EU is set to delay higher bank capital requirements over competitiveness concerns, with Brussels planning legislation to neutralise the short-term impact of the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book; the proposal would apply a temporary multiplier to offset higher capital charges on banks’ trading activities for up to three years. In consumer sectors, Unilever (ULVR LN) is reportedly in the early stages of considering a separation of its food assets, Bloomberg reports; talks are in prelim stages, and it may not pursue any deal before 2027. HelloFresh (HFG GY) reported Q4 adj. EBITDA +1% Y/Y at EUR 166mln (exp. 163mln), as its shift from meal kits to ready-to-eat weighed on performance; it expects FY26 revenue to fall to EUR 6.76bln (prev. 7.66bln Y/Y), and sees FY26 adj. EBITDA in a EUR 375-425mln range. Lululemon (LULU) shares fell 2% in extended US trading after its earnings beat was overshadowed by soft guidance; it also appointed former Levi (LEVI) CEO Chip Bergh to its board. In energy, BP (BP/ LN) will lock out about 800 United Steelworkers-represented workers at its 440k BPD Whiting refinery, from 19th March, after contract talks made little progress; the union rejected BP’s latest offer, and said the energy giant sought job cuts, pay cuts and changes to bargaining rights. Of note for Naturgy (NTGY SM), Spain is mulling buying more natgas from Algeria, via pipeline, as the Middle East war drives prices higher; Naturgy operates the pipeline between Spain and Algeria, and has discussed increasing orders with the government. Of note for renewable energy names, President Trump again said he wants no wind turbines built in the US during his Presidency; the remarks came after his administration took multiple steps to curb wind power development. In materials, Lanxess (LXS GY) is raising prices for alkylated diphenylamine and diphenylamine by 50% or more with immediate effect for all non-contractual volumes; it said the increase reflects significantly higher energy, critical raw material and logistics costs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. In real estate, Tag Immobilien (TEG GY) FY25 FFO rose +3% Y/Y to EUR 181mln (exp. 175mln), and adj. EBITDA from its rental business +4% Y/Y to EUR 333.1mln; net income was EUR 90.30mln (vs 122mln Y/Y); confirmed FY26 FFO guidance of EUR 187-197mln. In healthcare, FDA granted Sanofi (SAN FP) Breakthrough Therapy designation for Venglustat, an investigational oral GCSi inhibitor, for the treatment of neurological manifestations of type 3 Gaucher disease. BioNTech (22UA GY) major shareholder Strungmann said the company is not planning a sale, adding that the short-term stock market reaction does not reflect its true value. In notable broker updates, Jefferies downgraded National Grid (NG/ LN) and Sonova (SOON SW); UBS downgraded Logitech (LOGN SW). JPMorgan upgraded JCDecaux (DEC FP); TD Cowen upgraded TotalEnergies (TTE FP).

TODAY’S AGENDA:

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  DAY AHEAD: In Europe, final inflation stats for February are expected to be confirmed at 1.9% Y/Y for the headline, and 2.4% Y/Y for the core measure. Stateside, PPI data for February is seen rising +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.5%), with the annual rate unchanged at 2.9% Y/Y; the core PPI measure is expected to rise +0.3 M/M (prev. 0.8%), with the annual rate rising to 3.7% Y/Y (from 3.6%). The Federal Reserve is expected to stand pat on rates, with focus on updates projections, and any guidance for the future path of interest rates (see below). The BoC is also expected to hold today (see below), while the BCB is seen cutting rates by 25bps to 14.75%. The speakers’ slate includes Fed’s Powell (post-meeting Q&A), and BoC’s Macklem and Rogers (post-meeting Q&A). In supply, Germany will sell EUR 2.5bln of 2046 and 2056 debt. In energy, API data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a larger than expected build of +6.6mln bbls (exp. +0.4mln), Cushing stocks rose by +0.8mln bbls, distillates posted a draw of -1.4mln bbls (exp. -1.5mln), and gasoline posted a larger than expected draw of -4.6mln bbls (exp. -1.6mln). The more widely followed DoE inventory report will be published later today. Notable corporates due to publish earnings reports today include: Micron Technology (MU), Jabil (JBL), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), General Mills (GIS), Macy’s (M). Nvidia (NVDA) chief will continue to give remarks at the GTC event, which runs through Thursday.


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  PREVIEW - FOMC POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (18:00GMT/14:00EDT): The FOMC is expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% in March. Money markets do not expect a rate cut before Q4 2026, although pricing may have been influenced by a rise in short-term yields following the recent energy price surge linked to the Middle East conflict. Markets now fully price in one rate cut this year, compared with around two before the conflict. While some Fed officials have suggested they can look through one-off spikes, inflation is already well above the Fed’s 2% target, which analysts say could constrain the Committee. The inflation upside comes amid renewed labour market pressure, even before the conflict. The February jobs report showed a -92k change in nonfarm payrolls, likely raising questions about stagnation at the post-meeting press conference. The Committee remains split between prioritising the labour market and inflation sides of the mandate. Governor Waller has been vocal about labour market concerns, which may guide his decision, while others remain focused on above-target inflation. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the FOMC to cut rates in June, after Fed Chair Powell’s term ends in May, despite disruption from the Middle East conflict, which has pushed up energy, metals and food crop prices. Senator Thom Tillis said the nomination of incoming Chair Kevin Warsh may remain before the Senate Banking Committee for some time due to his objections to advancing Fed nominees before the DoJ probe related to Powell concludes.


• Click here for Newsquawk’s full FOMC preview


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  PREVIEW - BOC POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (13:45GMT/09:45EDT): The BoC is widely expected to hold rates at 2.25%, according to both money market pricing and a unanimous view in a Reuters poll of 33 economists. Of those surveyed, 25 out of 33 maintained their December view that rates will remain steady at least through 2026, despite potential risks to inflation and growth. Data since the last meeting showed the largest monthly decline in employment since January 2022, with a -83.9k print in February (exp. +10k), marking a second consecutive month of job losses. The unemployment rate in February also rose more than expected to 6.7% from 6.5%, alongside a decline in the participation rate. Meanwhile, inflation data for January and February has been encouraging, with headline Y/Y now below 2% and the BoC CPI Average easing again to 2.33% from 2.53%. On trade, developments around the USMCA have been limited, with a February New York Times report stating that US President Trump and his advisers had indicated the deal could be scrapped in favour of bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico. Canadian officials were cited as having very low expectations for a full renewal of the USMCA. Participants will focus on how the central bank addresses the Middle East conflict and whether increased uncertainty keeps the policy rate at the lower end of the neutral range for longer than expected. Amid the conflict, BoC’s Kozicki warned monetary policy may need to be tightened even when the economy is weak. Money markets have pushed back expectations for tightening in 2026 following continued easing in inflation and weak jobs data, now pricing the first 25bps hike by October (prev. September before the February jobs report), with 38bps of tightening by year-end (prev. 43bps)


• Click here for Newsquawk’s full BoC preview

18 Mar 2026 - 08:20- MetalsResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk