EUROPEAN FX UPDATE: USD softer against high-beta FX but higher against havens amid the risk-on mood

USD: DXY -0.2%; 99.57

• The DXY trades choppily after a rangebound APAC session, showing a mixed tone against major peers as participants digest upbeat US–China trade headlines and optimism over a potential resolution to the US government shutdown. The latter followed reports that eight Democrats backed the Republican spending bill to advance past a key procedural vote.


• ING analysts note that “the compromise falls well short of Democrats’ broader demands for a delay to the end of Obamacare subsidies, and opposition in the House may yet derail it. The next 48 hours in Congress will determine whether this initiative gains traction.”


• Looking ahead, the US calendar is relatively light this week, with the Veterans Day holiday tomorrow—bond markets will be shut, though equities remain open.


• The DXY currently holds within a tight 99.46–99.74 band, comfortably inside Friday’s broader 99.40–99.87 range.

EUR: EUR/USD U/C; 1.1568

• EUR/USD trades without clear direction around the 1.1550 mark amid a lack of fresh drivers from the Eurozone, while ECB’s Sleijpen warned against rushing into the issuance of joint European bonds, arguing such a move would ultimately burden the bloc with higher debt levels.


• Regional newsflow was light through the morning, leaving the pair largely at the mercy of broader dollar dynamics. Despite the softer USD backdrop, the euro failed to meaningfully capitalise, with upside momentum likely constrained by sizeable option expiries clustered below and around the 1.1500 handle.


• Option expiries (Opex): 1.1475 (2.4bln), 1.1500 (1.6bln), 1.1520–25 (553mln), 1.1600 (822mln), 1.1625–30 (744mln).


• EUR/USD currently trades within a 1.1542–1.1583 band, contained inside Friday’s broader 1.1529–1.1591 parameters, with technicians noting the 50DMA (1.1668) and 100DMA (1.1665) converging just overhead.

JPY: USD/JPY +0.5%; 154.19

• USD/JPY climbed at the open as improved sentiment surrounding US–China trade ties and renewed hopes for a US government reopening drove outflows from haven currencies.


• The JPY stands as the clear laggard among the majors, with moves largely reflecting an unwind of prior risk premia rather than fresh domestic developments. Comments from Japanese PM Takaichi ahead of the European open failed to elicit any notable market reaction.


• The pair gapped higher from Friday’s 153.41 close, opening at 153.77 before reclaiming the 154 handle. USD/JPY now trades within a 153.40–154.23 range, with the next resistance level seen at the November 5th high of 154.35.

GBP: GBP/USD +0.1%; 1.3171

• GBP/USD eased slightly overnight from last week’s highs but remained confined to a narrow range around the 1.3150 mark amid a quiet news backdrop.


• The high-beta currency finds modest support from a softer dollar and improved risk sentiment, though gains are capped as traders exercised caution ahead of the November 26th Budget. The Telegraph reported overnight that UK Chancellor Reeves is preparing to raise the dividend tax rate as part of fiscal tightening efforts.


• GBP/USD currently trades within a 1.3136–1.3184 range, having marginally surpassed Friday’s 1.3175 peak. The next upside target sits at the October 30th high of 1.3219.

Antipodeans: AUD/USD +0.6%; 0.6531 NZD/USD +0.3% 0.5643.

• The Antipodeans are the standout gainers amid a broadly constructive risk tone and ongoing USD softness, benefiting from the easing in US–China trade tensions and firmer Chinese inflation data over the weekend.


• Chinese CPI and PPI figures surprised modestly to the upside, reinforcing optimism around domestic demand stabilisation.


• AUD outpaced its Kiwi counterpart, aided by strength in gold and copper prices, while NZD’s gains were more measured as AUD/NZD extended its advance beyond the 1.1550 mark.

NOK: EUR/NOK -0.4%; 11.6800

• The NOK strengthened in tandem with the broader risk-on tone, further underpinned by firmer-than-expected domestic CPI data.


• EUR/NOK eased from levels near its 100DMA (11.7469) toward its 50DMA (11.6633), with the cross trading within a 11.6691–11.7492 range through the session.

10 Nov 2025 - 09:55- ForexEU Research- Source: Newsquawk