EUROPEAN FX UPDATE: USD gives back some of its recent gains

USD: DXY -0.2%; 106.51

• DXY has kicked the week off on a contained footing with not much to shift the macro dial over the weekend. The calendar for the upcoming week is light aside from jobless claims on Thursday and PMI data on Friday. However, the next likely data-induced inflection point for the USD likely doesn't come until NFP in early-December. Interim focus will be on additional cabinet picks by Trump with emphasis on his Treasury Secretary pick.


• DXY is currently caged within Friday's 106.33-96 range. If upside resumes, last week's YTD peak sits @ 107.06.

EUR: EUR/USD +0.3%; 1.0570

• A quiet start to the week with fresh Eurozone macro drivers on the light side ahead of ECB's Lagarde and Lane later in the session. Given the ECB's increased focus on growth vs. inflation, Friday's flash PMI metrics loom large. Consensus looks for the manufacturing print to remain at 46.0 while Services is seen slipping to 51.5 from 51.6, which would push Composite back into a contraction at 49.9 from 50.0. A soft outturn could heighten calls for a 50bps ECB rate cut next month.


• EUR/USD currently sits towards the upper end of Friday's 1.0516-93 range as the USD gives back some of its recent gains.


• EUR/USD opex: 1.0500 (1.2bln), 1.0520 (1bln), 1.0550-60 (545mln), 1.0600 (2.1bln) 1.0625 (1.2bln), 1.0650 (625mln).

JPY: USD/JPY +0.2%; 154.69

• JPY is the marginal laggard vs. the USD across the majors after BoJ Governor Ueda continued to signal a lack of urgency to hike rates but reiterated the BoJ will continue to adjust monetary support if the economy and prices move in line with their forecasts. He later warned they could be forced to hike rapidly if they don't adjust the degree of monetary support appropriately.


• USD/JPY currently sits towards the bottom end of Friday's 153.85-156.74 range; the upper bound of which was the highest level since July 23rd).

GBP: GBP/USD U/C; 1.2619

• GBP steady vs. the USD but in close proximity to Friday's multi-month low @ 1.2597 that was triggered by a soft outturn for Q3 UK GDP. This week, data will remain in focus with UK CPI, retail sales and PMI metrics all due on deck. The services component of the inflation release is the likely highlight. However, market pricing is firmly in favour of the MPC standing pat on rates next month. Looking ahead to 2025, markets price in around 63bps of easing by year-end.

Antipodeans: AUD/USD -0.1%; 0.6457. NZD/USD -0.3%; 0.5844

• Both marginally softer vs. the USD with not much in the way of fresh drivers to instigate price action. Both currencies remain sensitive to the fallout from the US election and the tone that Trump will strike towards China. Greater clarity on this could be garnered from upcoming Trump cabinet picks with the position of Treasury Secretary yet to be filled.


• AUD/USD is currently tucked within Friday's 0.6442-81 range. If downside resumes, last week's multi-month low sits @ 0.6440. Likewise for NZD/USD, the pair is currently contained within Friday's 0.5840-81 range with last week's multi-month low @ 0.5839.

18 Nov 2024 - 10:00- ForexData- Source: Newsquawk