EUROPEAN FX UPDATE: Surprise early US Challenger release takes DXY sub-100; NOK gains on Norges, GBP awaits the BoE

USD: DXY -0.2%; 99.99

• DXY is softer following rangebound trade, with a surprise early release of the US Challenger job cuts data prompted a cleaner breach back under 100.00, with the current intraday range between 99.89 - 100.11, and compared to yesterday's 100.06-100.36 range.


• Challenger October US Job Cuts jump 175.3% to a 7-month high at 153.074k (prev. 54.064k in September), according to Bloomberg. The release led to some upside in T-note futures and downside in the USD.


• On the tariff front, the US Supreme Court yesterday sharply questioned President Trump’s broad use of emergency powers to impose global tariffs, although this risk event is likely to be a slow burner, touted to end in Q1/Q2 2026, while ING's baseline is that tariffs will stay regardless of the ruling.


• Today’s speakers’ slate is busy, and features: Fed’s Williams (voter), Barr (voter), Waller (voter), Musalem (2025 voter), Hammack (2026), Paulson (2026), which could prompt some action if they reinforce hawkish leaning comments seen from officials earlier in the week.

EUR: EUR/USD +0.2%; 1.1511

• EUR is slightly firmer against the USD, largely amid USD weakness, whilst little action was seen following a variety of comments from ECB's Schnabel and de Guindos, and largely pessimistic Construction PMI.


• ING argues that the EUR is still cheap: "With the current spot (1.151), we estimate undervaluation at 1.3%. This means another leg lower would either imply some significant premium build-up on the euro (which generally argues for faster reversals) or require some hawkish Fed repricing. We don’t see a catalyst for the second, and we expect instead some stabilisation in the pair in the coming days with upside risks to 1.160."


• EUR/USD resides in a 1.1490-1.1524 intraday range, with traders also cognizant of the converging 50 DMA (1.1670) and 100 DMA (1.1664).


• In terms of notable OpEx, EUR/GBP sees EUR 1.04bln rolling off between 0.8800-0.8810 (currently 0.8800 at the time of writing).

JPY: USD/JPY -0.2%; 153.75

• USD/JPY faded some of the prior day's advances and gave back the 154.00 status following an acceleration in wages, with USD weakness further weighing on the pair in early European hours.


• Furthermore, one of Japan's largest labour unions, UA Zensen, is reportedly planning to push for a 6% wage hike for regular workers in next year's talks, according to Bloomberg.


• Aside from that, there is little else to mention for the JPY, with the pair comfortably tucked within yesterday's 152.96-154.35 range.

GBP: GBP/USD +0.2%; 1.3078

• Sterling in focus as the clock ticks down to the Bank of England rate decision, minutes, and MPR are due at 12:00GMT/07:00EST, with the press conference at 12:30GMT/07:30EST.


• The MPC is expected to keep the Bank Rate at 4.0%, likely via a 6-3 vote, with focus on any signals regarding future easing. Despite softer-than-expected September inflation, elevated Y/Y CPI is expected to keep policymakers on hold, though three members may favour a cut.


• The statement is expected to maintain that “a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint remains appropriate”. The September CPI report has increased expectations of a December cut, priced at around 64%. Medium-term forecasts in the MPR are expected to be consistent with August projections.


• Analysts have suggested that the MPC will wait for the Chancellor’s Budget (November 26th) before adjusting policy.


• GBP/USD resides in a current 1.3042-1.3089 range after topping yesterday's peak at 1.3054.

Antipodeans: AUD/USD +0.2%; 0.6513 NZD/USD -0.1% 0.5658.

• Diverging as the AUD/NZD cross rises above 1.1500 from a 1.1486 intraday low, with the AUD propped up by the base metals and the NZD hampered by cautious RBNZ commentary.


• Overnight, RBNZ Governor Hawkesby said he doesn’t think they are out of the worst on global trade tensions, while he added the labour market has deteriorated, which is something they anticipated.


• AUD/USD resides in a 0.6497-0.6518 range and is still some way off its 100 DMA (0.6539). NZD/USD is contained in a 0.5651-0.5669 range at the time of writing.

NOK: EUR/NOK -0.2%; 11.7122

• EUR/NOK stopped just shy of its 100 DMA (11.7519) following the policy decision by Norges Bank, which opted to keep rates steady at 4.00% as expected. The Bank largely reiterated the statement from the prior meeting, suggesting that "no information has been received that indicates that the outlook for the Norwegian economy has changed significantly since the September policy meeting".


• One slightly hawkish element from the Bank was a comment via Governor Bache, who suggested that "The job of overcoming inflation is not complete, and we are in no hurry to lower interest rates". Although, this is not necessarily surprising given inflation still remains above target at around 3.00%. Note, ahead of the meeting, there were some outside calls (albeit unlikely) that the Bank could tweak its guidance to be a little dovish - the Bank disappointed on that front.


• The NOK strengthened a touch on the announcement itself, likely on that comment. EUR/NOK fell from 11.7280 to a fresh session trough of 11.7130 over the course of around 7 minutes, before later extending to a 11.7025 low.

06 Nov 2025 - 10:15- ForexEU Research- Source: Newsquawk