EUROPEAN FX UPDATE: GBP slides on dismal UK jobs, EUR unreactive to ZEW; DXY treads water

USD: DXY U/C; 99.61

• The DXY holds steady through the European session, mirroring the subdued tone from APAC trade, after a mild softening earlier in the week. Market reaction was muted to the Senate’s approval of the government funding bill—largely in line with expectations—with attention now turning to the House, where Speaker Johnson aims for a Wednesday vote on the stopgap measure.


• Broader newsflow remained limited, while comments from Fed officials Miran, Musalem, and Daly yesterday offered little to shift market sentiment.


• ING analysts suggest that near-term direction may remain limited, noting that while the government reopening reduces growth concerns, the resumption of US data releases could highlight downside risks for the labour market and front-end rates, weighing on the dollar into year-end.


• The DXY trades within a tight 99.60–99.74 band, comfortably inside Monday’s 99.46–99.74 range, with resistance seen at the November 7th high of 99.87.

EUR: EUR/USD +0.1%; 1.1567

• EUR/USD remains directionless, confined to a narrow range amid a lack of fresh drivers from the Eurozone and with no move seen to the ZEW survey or to ECB commentary.


• Germany’s ZEW survey disappointed, with commentary noting that while government investment plans may offer short-term support, “structural problems continue to exist.”


• ECB commentary offered little new insight: Vujčić said inflation risks are now broadly balanced, while Elderson reiterated that the current rate level is “appropriate,” stressing continued data dependence and a meeting-by-meeting approach.


• The pair trades comfortably within Monday’s 1.1541–1.1583 range, currently at 1.1547–1.1569, with the 50DMA (1.1663) having slipped marginally below the 100DMA (1.1664).

GBP: GBP/USD -0.3%; 1.3131

• GBP/USD slipped lower in early trade after a lacklustre overnight session, weighed by weaker-than-expected UK labour data. Employment contracted, the jobless rate ticked higher than expectations, while earnings ex-bonus matched forecasts. The release prompted a swift GBP/USD drop from 1.3153 to 1.3121, while EUR/GBP climbed from 0.8781 to 0.8804 within eight minutes. BoE rate expectations turned slightly more dovish, with a full 25bps cut now fully priced for February (vs. 98.8% pre-data).


• Post-data, BoE’s Greene noted the unemployment report was “not great” and cautioned that survey issues cloud the labour market picture. She added that policy “needs to be more restrictive than otherwise,” but remains unconvinced that current settings are “meaningfully restrictive.”


• GBP/USD trades near the lower end of a 1.3116–1.3178 band, having slipped below Monday’s 1.3136 low, with next support seen at 1.3095 (7th Nov low).

JPY: USD/JPY +0.1%; 154.29

• USD/JPY ticked higher overnight, briefly reclaiming the 154.00 handle before paring gains as broader risk sentiment softened.


• The session has offered little in the way of fresh domestic catalysts, with price action largely dictated by cautious risk tone and subdued cross-asset moves.


• The pair continues to consolidate within a 154.03–154.49 range, with the 154.50 zone remaining a firm resistance area throughout the month to date.

Antipodeans: AUD/USD -0.3%; 0.6517 NZD/USD -0.1% 0.5642

• The Antipodeans drifted lower through the APAC session, giving back a portion of yesterday’s gains that were driven by improved risk sentiment.


• AUD/USD eased further from its 100DMA (0.6539) after encountering resistance at that level yesterday, with the pair trading within a 0.6515–0.6537 band.


• NZD/USD remains rangebound between 0.5631–0.5650, broadly in line with Monday’s parameters (0.5620–0.5650), with resistance noted near the 0.5650 psychological mark.

11 Nov 2025 - 10:20- ForexData- Source: Newsquawk