EUROPEAN FX UPDATE: DXY flat, Antipodeans lead whilst havens lag in quiet trade

DXY: +0.1%, 99.03

• USD is slightly firmer/flat and trades within a very narrow 98.92-99.10 range; lack of data releases and Fed speak (due to blackout) has led to quiet trade for the Dollar. However, this should all pick-up on Friday, with the BLS set to release US CPI, despite the government shutdown.


• There have been some important trade-related newsflow recently; Reuters reported that the Trump administration is mulling a plan to restrict globally produced exports to China made with or containing US software. Though the piece suggested that the US may not go forward with the plan, and may only be used to apply pressure on China amid trade negotiations. On that, Treasury Secretary Bessent is set to meet with China’s VP in Malaysia over the weekend; Bessent said he hopes “to iron things out”.


• On the US economy, Bessent believes inflation will begin coming down over the next few months.


• In recent trade, the CCP has released its fourth plenum communique, where it approved drafts of the next five-year plan. No real move across FX markets on this, as the readout is ongoing.

EUR: -0.1%, 1.1597

• EUR is flat/incrementally lower vs USD. EUR/USD is currently trading in a 1.1591-1.1614 range, which is towards the mid-point of Wednesday’s bounds. Overnight, ECB’s Kazaks said “it may well be the case that the next rate move could as easily be a hike as a cut” – comments which are in contrast to Villeroy (cut more likely than hike) and Kocher (sees equal chance).


• In geopolitics, the US Treasury Department announced it is imposing sanctions on Russia related to oil and is targeting Russia's Rosneft and Lukoil in the latest batch of sanctions. This sparked some considerable upside in oil prices, and as such saw the Single-Currency trickle lower throughout the APAC session.


• Now focus turns to the EZ PMIs on Friday, but may have a limited impact on the EUR itself, given the ECB is set to keep rates steady next week.

JPY: +0.4%, 152.60

• JPY is right at the foot of the G10 pile, alongside haven peer CHF; nothing really driving the “risk-on” sentiment seen in the FX-space today, but perhaps some focus on US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s meeting with China VP this weekend – it is worth caveating that other trade-related reporting has been broadly negative (discussed above).


• Newsflow out of Japan has been very light, with USD/JPY largely moving at the whim of the Dollar; currently trades at the upper end of a 151.82-152.66 range, a peak which marks a WTD best. Further upside could see a breach back above 153.00 and then to the 10th October high at 152.27.

GBP: U/C, 1.3344

• GBP is flat, taking a breather following the prior day’s subdued trade in the aftermath of a softer-than-expected inflation report. Newsflow since has been incredibly light, and this has been reflected in Cable, which currently trades in a narrow 1.3329-1.3362 range; at the mid-point of Wednesday’s confines.

Antipodeans: AUD +0.3%, NZD +0.2%

• Antipodeans are at the top of the G10 pile, but little fresh behind the strength; though upside which seemingly coincided with an early-morning uptick in copper prices.


• AUD/USD currently contained within a 0.6478-0.6512; peak for the day nudged a little above the best made in the prior session. The Kiwi trades in a 0.5724-0.5751 range, having pulled back and currently trades at the mid-point of the prior day’s range. A bout of upside would see the pair test its 21 DMA at 0.5764.

23 Oct 2025 - 10:15- ForexEU Research- Source: Newsquawk