EUROPEAN FIXED UPDATE: Debt dips with concession perhaps factoring, Central Bank speak due

Analysis details (10:32)

• Despite initially matching yesterday’s last print of 136.58, the Bund was unable to mount a test of the session’s 136.67 peak and since has pulled back to sub-136.00. Action which comes despite any significant fresh fundamental driver for EGBs specifically and has occurred alongside marked action in FX, which itself is seemingly technical/stop driven for the most part.


• Thus far, Bunds have been down to a 135.82 low with the associated 10yr yield sticky at 2.30%; marks which are both well within yesterday’s respective 135.15 and 2.365% respective trough/peak given the session's OPEC-driven action.


• Gilts and USTs are both in-line with the above in terms of direction, but with the magnitude of action slightly more pronounced in the UK benchmark ahead of scheduled commentary from Chief Economist Pill after dove-Tenreyro stuck to her known bias. Remarks which sparked little reaction; reminder, she leaves the MPC after the June 2023 meeting with a replacement due to be nominated shortly. Specifically, Gilts are at their own session trough of 103.63 which itself is someway from Monday’s 102.99 low and last week’s 102.74 extreme while the 10yr yield remains stuck around 3.50% but again in familiar levels. Stateside, the docket is thin until February data via JOLTS and Factory Orders before remarks from voters Cook and Mester intersected by non-voter Collins.


• Within Europe, supply thus far has been well-received thus far alongside books opening and pricing updates for Italy and Cyprus alongside corporate developments. Announcements which have, alongside the supply docket, perhaps been behind the morning’s downside as concession exerts influence and a slight uptick has been seen most recently with just Germany’s I/L remaining.

04 Apr 2023 - 10:32- Research Sheet- Source: Newsquawk