EUROPEAN EQUITY UPDATE: Tentative tone across markets with eyes on trade headlines ahead of scheduled risk events

STOXX 600: +0.2%

• European bourses opened mostly firmer and have traded tentatively within a tight range ahead of the day’s key risk events. More recently some very modest pressure has entered the complex.


• In terms of what has been released so far; French inflation data printed a touch above expectations; German Retail Sales was mixed; Unemployment Change fell but the headline rate was unchanged from the prior; GDP in-line; state CPI figures out of the region were mixed; the M/M mostly rose from the prior (mainland expected to remain unchanged); as a reminder the mainland figure is due at 13:00 BST. EZ GDP grew more than expected in Q1 - but likely a little stale given it doesn't capture the recent Trump tariff implementation. Little movement was seen across the complex following these releases.


• On trade updates, US President Trump said they are coming from all over the world, including China, looking to make a deal and he confirmed to ease the impact of auto tariffs. More recently, French Finance Minister Lombard said he discussed the idea of reciprocal zero tariffs with US Treasury Secretary Bessent, Bessent told him that "this was not unrealistic".

Sectors: Positive

• European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Media (lifted by post-earning strength in UMG) and the Telecoms sectors take the top spots, whilst Travel & Leisure and Basic Resources underperform.


• Banks: Credit Agricole (-3.9%, reported mixed reports; missed Q1 profits amid higher costs), SocGen (+4.1%, Q1 results topped expectations; Co. benefited from a rebound in equities trading), Caixabank (-4.5%, sees lower NII in 2025), Santander (-4.5%, reported record Q1 profits but UK branch a little weak), UBS (+1.8%, very strong results across the board), Barclays (+0.5%, topped expectations and lifted FY25 NII guidance).


• Autos: Mercedes Benz (-0.9%, Q1 Sales missed and provided cautious commentary on economic uncertainty), Volkswagen (U/C, weak results and expects sales margin at lower end of guidance range), Stellantis (+1.5%, in-line Net Revenue but suspended FY guidance citing tariff-related uncertainty; upside may stem from pricing ahead of expectations in all key regions).


• Travel & Leisure: Air France (+1.5%, topped analyst expectations and confirmed guidance), Evolution (-16.5%, Q1 top- and bottom-line miss).

Majors: DAX 40 +0.6%, IBEX 35 -1.4%, FTSE 100 U/C

• European bourses are mostly in the green today, and have traded fairly rangebound throughout the session thus far; the DAX 40 marginally outperforms whilst the IBEX 35 is in the red.


• Other large cap movers: GSK (+2.9%, top- and bottom-line beats and sees FY guidance impresses), TotalEnergies (-3.5%, mixed Q1 results; announced USD 2bln buyback in Q2).

US Equity Futures: ES -0.2%, NQ -0.3%, RTY U/C

• Futures are trading tentatively on either side of the unchanged mark ahead of a very busy day, packed with key US data points, including US GDP, PCE, Employment Costs and ADP National Employment.


• Pre-market movers; Snap (-13%, Omits Q2 guidance due to uncertain macro conditions), SuperMicro (very poor Q3 results and guidance disappointed – metrics which weighed on peers), Visa (+1%, topped expectations and authorised USD 30bln multi-year buyback).

30 Apr 2025 - 10:20- ForexData- Source: Newsquawk