EUROPEAN EQUITY UPDATE: Stocks turn mixed after the initial optimism from Wall Street

STOXX 600: -0.1%

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  European bourses kicked off the first trading session of the week with modest gains following the upside on Wall Street, in which the sentiment reverberated into APAC markets before reaching Europe, although traders are cognizant of the US July 9th deadline for reciprocal tariffs, in which reports did suggest Trump said he doesn't expect to extend the July 9th tariff deadline.


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  Shortly after the open, a divergence was seen between EZ bourses and UK indices despite a lack of newsflow at the time - potentially amid recent US trade-related headlines with US President Trump on Friday suggesting Europe has been very tough on trade and said they have a good relationship but it is a tough situation, whilst the UK government said the UK-US trade deal has come into force, slashing US export tariffs for the UK's automotive and aerospace sectors.


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  Also of note, today is month/quarter/half-year-end, and it will be a holiday-shortened week in the US amid July 4th Independence Day, with the US jobs report due on Thursday instead of the typical Friday. From a central bank perspective, the ECB Sintra Forum commences today and is to last until July 2nd.


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  From a data standpoint, EZ stocks saw a modest uptick in the cooling of German State CPIs (following slightly hotter-than-expected HICP stats from France and Spain last week) which modestly defied expectations for an uptick in the mainland figure at 13:00 BST, expected to rise from 1.9% to 2.2% in June. Meanwhile, stale UK GDP data had no notable effect on FTSE 100 futures at the time.

Sectors: Mixed

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  Opened mostly firmer with just Energy in the red, albeit since then the sectoral picture has been mixed with the breadth of the market relatively narrow.


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  Top gainers include Real Estate, Utilities, Financial Services and Retail, while laggards consist of Autos & Parts, Basic Resources, and Chemicals.

Stock Specifics

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  TotalEnergies (U/C) is reportedly in talks with at least two bidders for its Argentina shale oil assets in the Vaca Muerta formation, following the CEO's earlier indication of willingness to sell stakes at the right price.


• Elliott Management’s Italian financial firm Banca CF+ plans an offer for Banca Sistema SpA (-10.1%), combining cash and shares of Banca Sistema’s unit Kruso Kapital; Banca CF+ later confirmed it is to launch an offer for 100% of the Co. for EUR 1.80/shr (vs EUR 1.96 close on Friday).


• Norway’s largest private pension fund, KLP Pension managing about USD 114bln, has reportedly blacklisted Oshkosh (OSK) and ThyssenKrupp (+1.3%) due to their arms sales to the Israeli military amid the Gaza conflict.


• US Senator Maggie Hassan launched an investigation into GSK’s (-0.9%) asthma inhaler discontinuation, citing “life-threatening consequences for patients,” according to STATNews.


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  From a logistics standpoint, US tariff policies coupled with low river levels are causing the worst supply chain congestion since COVID, according to FT. Issues at the ports of Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg are expected to last for several months.

US Equity Futures: ES +0.4%, NQ +0.5%, YM +0.6%, RTY +0.5%

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  Gains across US futures with sentiment supported by compromises on the trade front (US and G7 agree 'side-by-side taxes to prevent a global tax war; Canada withdrew its escalatory digital tax measures; Japan continues talks with the US) as well as progress made on President Trump's "big, beautiful bill", where lawmakers in the Senate will begin voting today after clearing a procedural hurdle on the weekend.


• Meanwhile, shares of large US banks are rising pre-market after clearing the Fed Stress test released late Friday.


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  The week's busy US docket starts off on a quieter note, but attention will, later in the week, fall on the US jobs figures and ISM surveys, due before the US market holidays for Independence Day towards the end of the week.


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  On the US speakers slate on Monday, Fed's Bostic (2027 voter) is due at 14:00 BST, US Treasury Secretary Bessent will be on Bloomberg TV at 14:30 BST, then Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter) is due to speak at 18:00 BST.

30 Jun 2025 - 10:00- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk