EUROPEAN EQUITY UPDATE: Stocks trade mostly higher following a mixed lead from APAC and Wall Street

STOXX 600: +0.4%

• European indices opened in the green, shrugging off a mixed APAC lead, where participants digested data, trade commentary and central bank speakers from the session on Wall Street. Trade has been moderately choppy through the European morning, though the index ultimately holds onto gains made at the open.


• US fiscal policy remains a focus after the Senate narrowly passed President Trump's tax and spending package, which now heads to the House. The bill faces a tight vote amid Republican divisions over Medicaid and tax provisions, while Democrats remain opposed. A vote is expected by Thursday.


• On the trade front, US President Trump said the July 9th deadline is unlikely to be extended, and doubts a deal with Japan will be reached soon, but expects possible progress with India.


• On the speakers' slate, from the ECB's conference, remarks are expected from ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, Chief Economist Lane, ECB's Cipollone and BoE dovish dissenter Taylor.

Sectors: Positive

• Sectors opened entirely in the green, with Banks outperforming, bolstered by various stories for the likes of Standard Chartered and Sabadell (see the below section for details).


• As the session has progressed, sectors now show a mixed picture: Banks remain at the top of the pile, and Real Estate underperforms, weighed down by the current yield environment, Gilts pressured by the UK’s vote on welfare reforms, where the Chancellor's plans are now projected to deliver GBP 2bln in savings, down from the originally flagged GBP 5bln.

Individual Movers

• Santander (+2.8%) will pay GBP 2.65bln for Sabadell's (+5.3%) TSB unit.


• Standard Chartered (+2.5%) rejects claims in USD 2.7bln lawsuit linked to 1MDB.


• Greggs (-14.4%) Board anticipates FY operating profit below that achieved in 2024.


• Vestas (+9.5%) The US Senate passed a draft bill, which provides better conditions for the wind industry than the previously proposed bill.


• Spectris (+4.7%) KKR agrees to acquire Spectris for GBP 40/shr, at a 6.3% premium to Advent's offer.


• Thyssenkrupp (+6.0%) The German government said it to not hold talks for purchasing a stake in Thyssenkrupp's Defence division, via Handelsblatt.


• Admiral Group +1.4%: upgraded at Goldman Sachs.


• Munich Re +1.5%: upgraded at JPMorgan.

US Equity Futures: ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%, YM +0.1%, RTY +0.5%

• US Equity futures are posting modest gains, RTY is the clear outperformer, as it catches up to gains made in other US indices YTD.


• The US day ahead sees Tesla’s quarterly sales figures, which are expected to decline 12% Y/Y in Q2 to around 389,400 vehicles. (Full primer on the headline feed).


• Ahead for economic data releases, we expect ADP private payrolls figures for June, seen at 95k from the prior 37k; there will also be attention on the wages metrics - last time out, the median change in annual pay for job stayers remained at 4.5% Y/Y, while it ticked up for job changers to 7.0% Y/Y from 6.9%. Challenger layoffs data for the month are also due. Elsewhere, weekly MBA mortgage applications data will be released.


• In terms of some individual stories, Jefferies upgraded Apple to Hold from Underperform with a price target of USD 188.32, citing potential Q3 revenue and EPS growth of about 8% and 10%, respectively, driven by strong iPhone sales and tariff-driven demand. This outlook exceeds the consensus view and Apple’s low-single-digit revenue guidance. Elsewhere, in communications, the third season of Netflix’s Squid Game set a record with over 60mln views in its first three days, ranking number one in 93 countries; this surpassed its previous season’s debut, which had 68mln views in four days. And finally, in Financials, some major US banks have lifted their dividend after passing the Fed stress tests last week.

02 Jul 2025 - 10:15- ForexData- Source: Newsquawk