EUROPEAN EQUITY UPDATE: sentiment subdued following early selling in European futures

STOXX 600: -0.1%

• European bourses kicked the session off on the backfoot following the selling pressure seen in futures ahead of the cash open; there was no obvious catalyst behind the move. From a fundamental perspective, fresh macro drivers are light after the German Bundestag passed the fiscal reform bill yesterday; the upper house (Bundesrat) will vote on the matter on Friday, a vote which is widely expected to pass. Barclays lifted its Stoxx 600 end-2025 target to 580 (prev. 545)


• Overnight, APAC stocks traded mixed as the region lacked firm conviction following the negative handover from Wall St and as participants braced for central bank announcements including the BoJ decision which lacked any major fireworks.

Sectors: Mostly negative

• Equity sectors hold a mostly negative bias with Basic Resources names near the foot of the pile with Rio Tinto (-0.7%) on the backfoot after reaffirming its support for its dual-listed structure and urged shareholders to reject hedge fund Palliser Capital’s proposal to unify its listings in Australia. Other laggards include Personal Care, Drug & Grocery names and Chemicals. To the upside, Energy names remain on the front foot after yesterday's upside with modest gains also seen in Construction and Insurance.

DAX 40 -0.2%, FTSE 100 -0.1%, CAC 40 +0.2%, IBEX 35 -0.1%, FTSE MIB +0.4%, SMI -0.1%

• DAX is the marginal laggard across the region after outperforming yesterday, whilst the FTSE MIB outperforms peers alongside gains in Italian banking names.


• In terms of individual movers, Leonardo (+3%) and BAE Systems (+2.3%) are two of the better performers in the Stoxx 600 following reports that the EU and UK are to accelerate shipments of arms to Ukraine ahead of a potential full ceasefire, according to Bloomberg. Schneider Electric (+1%) shares have been boosted following a broker upgrade at RBC, whilst M&G (+2.4%) is higher post-earnings. Elsewhere, Haleon (-0.1%) shares are steady after Pfizer opted to fully dispose of its 7.3% stake in the Co. BBVA (+1.5%) is up after noting it remains confident that the hostile takeover bid for Sabadell will be approved by competition authorities within the next few weeks.


• To the downside, Traton (-4.6%) are notably weaker after Volkswagen offloaded 11mln shares in the Co. Ferrexpo (-6.3%) is lower post-earnings.

US Equity Futures: ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%, YM +0.1%, RTY +0.2%

• Futures are firmer across the board but only modestly so. Early doors, the benchmarks were knocked as part of a broader risk move with numerous factors potentially exerting influence; namely, Putin-Trump digestion and potential breach of the energy ceasefire, Ueda’s hawkish language, Turkish turmoil and ongoing tariff uncertainty.


• Docket ahead is geared firmly towards the FOMC, where a hold is seen as near-certain by markets with attention on the dot plots (currently point to two more cuts) and Powell/statement’s assessment of the economy and tariffs.


• In terms of equity specifics NVIDIA’s (+1%) GTC saw a flurry of partnership announcements, Apple’s (+0.2%) Siri AI may miss Spring launch target, Oracle (+0.4)% mulls a stake in TikTok US, JPMorgan (+0.2%) hikes its dividend, Morgan Stanley (-0.1%) to cut jobs, Citi (+0.4%) lowers bonuses.

19 Mar 2025 - 10:00- EquitiesResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk