EUROPEAN EQUITY OPEN: Stocks gain after Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) secures liquidity support from the SNB; markets are 50/50 on whether the ECB lifts rates by +50bps later today

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  OVERNIGHT: Asia-Pac stocks were mostly lower as the region, but rose off worst levels after news that Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) had secured liquidity support from the SNB. Japanese participants also digested mixed data releases, where Machinery Orders topped expectations, though Exports growth missed. Chinese equities conformed to the downbeat mood amid frictions with the US, which has reportedly threatened to ban TikTok if its Chinese founders do not sell ownership stakes. (See here for our APAC wrap).


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  EUROPEAN OPEN: Following the rout in banking stocks on Wednesday, stocks in Europe are seeing solid gains after the open, as liquidity fears around Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) ease after it secured liquidity support from the SNB. Other banks, particularly those thought to have had significant exposure to the Swiss bank, are also rallying. With concerns around a possible Eurozone banking crisis diminishing (for now), attention shifts onto the ECB’s rate decision today; some had argued that the banking woes would compel the central bank to fire a lower-than-guided rate hike of 25bps, although the positive mood today may tilt the calculus back towards the guided +50bps; money markets are currently split 50/50 between these outcomes (you can access our full preview here).

DAY AHEAD:

• Our real time events calendar can be accessed here; a PDF version can be accessed here.


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  EUROPE: The main event is the ECB's policy meeting, where a 50bps rate hike is still the consensus following sourced articles guiding us towards that decision this week, and despite some of the fears in the banking sector around financial stability; you can access our full preview here. Elsewhere, final Italian consumer prices for March will be released, though will likely be overshadowed by the ECB meeting.


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  NORTH AMERICA: A heavy US pre-markets data slate includes weekly US initial jobless claims and continuing claims data (this week's data does not coincide with the BLS jobs report survey window), Building Permits and Housing Starts for February, Import and Export prices for February, and the March Philly Fed survey.


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  SUPPLY: On the supply front, Spain will auction between EUR 5.5-6.5bln of 2028, 2033, and 2052 debt; France will sell between EUR 10.5-12bln of 2026, 2028, and 2030 debt. Stateside, the US will announce sizes for next week's 20yr bond sale, as well as a 10yr TIPS. See here for our Bond Auction previews note.


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  ENERGY: WTI April 2023 options are set to expire today. The EIA will report weekly natgas storage change data; the street expects a draw of 62 BCF.

STOCK NEWS:

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  FINANCIALS: Following a 24% slide in its shares on Wednesday, Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) took a CHF 50bln loan from Swiss central bank as it acts to strengthen liquidity. SNB said Credit Suisse met capital and liquidity requirements, and it was able to provide the bank with liquidity. BNP Paribas (BNP FP) has reportedly lowered exposure to Credit Suisse, and has stopped taking novations on swaps involving the Swiss bank. JPMorgan (JPM) speculates that a takeover is the most likely scenario for Credit Suisse, and said UBS (USBG SW) could be the acquirer. Santander (SAN SM) has reportedly halted a USD 942mln subprime auto ABS sale amid the banking sector turmoil. Raiffeisen (RBI AV) seeks to swap EUR 400mln with Sberbank in "financial prisoner exchange" to reduce exposure to Russia. Grenke (GLJ GY) sees an increase in new leasings. Deutsche Boerse (DB1 GY) upgraded at Credit Suisse. Saipem (SPM IM) upgraded at Morgan Stanley.


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  EX-DIVS: NatWest (NWG LN), SEGRO (SGRO LN), Anglo American (AAL LN), Haleon (HLN LN), CRH (CRH LN), M&G (MNG LN), and Entain (ENT LN) will trade without entitlement to their latest dividend pay-out.


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  COMMUNICATIONS: Vodafone Business (VOD) CEO Vinod Kumar will retire at end-2023.


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  CONSUMER CYCLICAL: Deliveroo (ROO LN) sees positive end to FY22, forecasts earnings growth in FY23. Dufry (DUFN SW) initiated with Overweight at JPMorgan Chase


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  CONSUMER STAPLES: GQG Partners said it does not make sense for British American Tobacco (BATS LN) to be on the UK stock market, highlighting its US focus and the value gap when compared to peers listed in the US.


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  ENERGY: Siemens Energy (ENR GY) launches a cash capital increase via accelerated book building; share capital will be increased by up to 10%.


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  HEALTH CARE: Morphosys (MOR GY) FY results were better than analysts were fearing.


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  INDUSTRIALS: CNH Industrial (CNHI IM) exec said it plans for one or two transformational investments in the coming year or two. Air France-KLM (AF FP) announces full repayment of its French state-guaranteed bank loan. Halma (HLMA LN) sees FY adj. PBT in-line with market expectations. Rentokil (RTO LN) FY sales top expectations, appoints non-exec director. Vossloh (VOS GY) FY revenue tops analyst expectations. Vestas Wind Systems (VWS DC) upgraded at DNB Markets.


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  MATERIALS: Glencore (GLEN LN) will not renew its USD 16bln aluminium contract with Rusal. Norsk Hydro (NHY NO) downgraded at SEB Enskilda.


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  TECH: Of note for Tech Names, the EU proposes to curb imports of Chinese tech, FT reports.


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  UTILITIES: United Utilities (UU/ LN) CEO will retire on 31st March. Verbund (VER AV) FY revenue was below analyst expectations.

16 Mar 2023 - 08:10- Fixed IncomeEU Research- Source: Newsquawk