EUROPEAN EQUITY OPEN: Equities rise on signs of slowing German and Spanish inflation, and a continued easing in banking angst; national German CPI data ahead before Eurozone inflation data tomorrow

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  OVERNIGHT: On Wall Street, stocks firmed Wednesday, with the Nasdaq 100 re-entering a technical bull market after rising 20% from its December low, while the SPX closed above its 50dma for the first time since March 6th (see here). The Asia-Pac session was mixed; Aussie shares rose amid a dovish re-tweaking of RBA expectations after slower Feb CPI data this week, though Japanese stocks were pressured as we enter the fiscal year-end window; China shares ultimately faltered despite another substantial liquidity effort by the PBoC, as traders digested earnings releases and as US-China frictions lingered (see here).


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  EUROPEAN OPEN: Equities open Thursday trade on the front foot after some regional German inflation data gives credence to the consensus view that the national measures of inflation will see a solid slowing when they are released this afternoon, while the Spanish inflation data for the month came in below expectations; both suggest that the aggregated Eurozone headline measure of inflation for the month will slow when they are released on Friday (NOTE: the core measures in the Friday data will probably more important for the ECB's trajectory, and both the ex-Food and Energy, as well as the Ex-Food, Energy, Alcohol and Tobacco measures are seen rising by one-tenth to 7.5% Y/Y and 5.7% Y/Y). Traders will also be paying attention to data out of the US, where a third look at Q4 GDP stats is released – the PCE components will receive attention, though are likely to be unrevised. Elsewhere, the weekly US jobless claims data is due; any sharp rise will feed into ‘upcoming recession’ arguments, while any downside, or indeed remaining sub-200k will likely weigh on arguments looking for a Fed pivot any time soon.


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  STOCK SPECIFICS: Banking fears continue to ease, with Swiss regulators reportedly happy with the appointment of Sergio Ermotti as UBS (UBSG SW) chief. There were also positive signs in earnings numbers from H&M (HMB SS), where the world’s second largest retailer posted a surprise profit, despite challenging macro conditions, and high inflation eroding consumer spending power. On the health care front, Philips (PHG) CEO expects to reach settlements this year on its global recall of respiratory devices. For energy and material names, Australia approves emissions caps on big polluters, will force coal mines, smelters and oil refineries to cut emissions each year. Financial names will note a report from the City of London, which said London has lost the top position as the World's premier global financial centre, now sharing the top spot with New York. Our full stock specific briefings for March 30th can be accessed here and here.

DAY AHEAD:

• Our full interactive calendar can be accessed here; a pdf version can be accessed here.


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  EUROPEAN DATA/SPEAKERS: Inflation data out of Germany (its regions report through the morning, the national data is due in the European afternoon) will help to shape expectations of what the Eurozone-wide metrics will look like, when they are released on Friday; the consensus looks for the headline to ease to 7.3% Y/Y from 8.7%, while the HICP measure is seen slowing to 7.5% from 9.3%. So far, we have seen numbers from the North Rhine Westphalia region, where CPI fell to 6.9% Y/Y from 8.5%. Eurozone sentiment indicators for March will be released in the morning. ECB's economic bulletin is also out in the morning, but will likely be a reiteration of the recent press conference with President Lagarde. On the speakers front, the SNB's Maechler and Moser will speak after the European close; Norges Bank's Longva and Riksbank's Bunge are also due to speak today. Elsewhere, the SARB rate decision (hike +25bps expected) and CBRT meeting minutes are also out.


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  NORTH AMERICAN DATA/SPEAKERS: There is a heavy US data slate, including a third look at Q4 GDP data (headline expected to be confirmed at 2.7%, while there will also be focus on the PCE components, where the core measure is expected to be confirmed at 4.3%). US weekly jobless claims data will be out at the same time; analysts look for initial jobless claims to be little changed and remain below 200k, while the continuing claims measure (this week's continuing claims syncs with the BLS' survey window for the March jobs data) is seen trivially ticking up to 1.697mln from 1.694mln. On the speakers front, Fed's Barkin (non-voter), Collins (non-voter) and Kashkari (voter) will speak, while US Treasury Secretary Yellen will also be making some remarks again. Elsewhere, the Banxico is expected to lift rates by 25bps to 11.25% (our primer can be accessed here).


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  ENERGY: The EIA will release weekly natgas storage data, which is expected to show a draw of 54BCF vs last week’s draw of 72BCF.


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  SUPPLY: Italy will sell between EUR 5.5-6.5bln of 2028 and 2033 debt, as well as between EUR 2.0-2.5bln of 2030 & 2029 CCTEUs.

30 Mar 2023 - 08:10- Fixed IncomeData- Source: Newsquawk