EUROPEAN EQUITIES UPDATE: Stocks jump on Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement

STOXX 600: +1.2%

• European bourses opened entirely in the green and still trade at elevated levels, albeit have cooled a touch off peaks.


• Sentiment today has been boosted by US President Trump’s “complete and total ceasefire” announcement between Iran and Israel. Though this seems to have broken down only 4 hours after being in effect, with the IDF suggesting it had detected and intercepted fresh ballistic missiles from Iran. In response to this latest attack, the IDF Minister instructed the military to respond “forcefully” to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire. Iran has denied firing missiles at Israel after the ceasefire.


• This latest bout of uncertainty in the region has sparked some very modest pressure in the equities complex, but they still remain broadly in the green.


• Docket so far has included German Ifo data which was more-or-less in-line with expectations; figures which sparked little move in the complex. Ahead there are a slew of ECB and BoE members set to appear throughout the day, please see the Newsquawk calendar for full details.

Sectors: Positive

• European sectors hold a strong positive bias, in-fitting with the positive risk-tone seen across markets.


• It comes as no surprise that Energy sits right at the foot of the pile, due to the latest slump in oil prices, following the latest ceasefire agreement. There was not too much of a move in underlying crude prices on the reported Iranian violation of that agreement – so the complex continues to remain subdued.


• Travel & Leisure takes the top spot, lifted by lower oil prices and with airliners generally buoyed by the broader sentiment. Elsewhere, the Banking sector generally benefits from the slightly higher yield environment (as bonds move lower given the positive risk appetite). The sector itself has had quite a lot of newsflow; Spain is reportedly to tighten its requirement on BBVA’s takeover bid for Sabadell. Elsewhere, Reuters suggests that the ECB has cleared BMPS' proposed takeover offer for Mediobanca.

Majors: FTSE 100 +0.3%, DAX 40 +2%, CAC 40 +1.3%

• The FTSE 100 is modestly firmer and underperforming vs peers, with large-cap oilers to blame, given the subdued oil prices; the likes of BP (-4.9%) and Shell (-3.5%) both move lower. Elsewhere, travel names such as easyJet (+6.4%) and IAG (+6.2%) both sit at the top of the pile. For stock specifics; Bunzl (+1.3%) is a little higher after it said it is in-line with expectations; Rio Tinto (+1.1%) said it is to invest USD 1.61bln to develop an iron ore project in Australia.


• As for heavyweight Novo Nordisk (+2.2%), shares move higher after it said it has received EU recommendation in peripheral arterial disease, cementing the broad benefits of Semaglutide for people with type 2 diabetes and comorbidities.

US Equity Futures: ES +0.7%, NQ +1%, RTY +1.1%

• Futures are broadly in the green, with the complex boosted by the Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement; contracts are off worst levels however, amid commentary from the Israel side that Iran has already violated the agreement.


• US data docket sees US Consumer Confidence; across the Northern Borden, Canada will release its inflation metrics. A number of Fed speakers are due today, including: Fed's Barr (voter), Collins (2025 voter), Schmid (2025 voter), Hammack (2026 voter), and Kashkari (2026 voter) – more focus on Chair Powell who is also due.


• Fed Chair Powell will deliver his semi-annual testimony before House and Senate committees this week (House on Tuesday; Senate on Wednesday) and justify keeping interest rates steady until at least September, despite President Trump’s calls to cut borrowing costs.


• Recent bank commentary via Morgan Stanley has suggested that geopolitical led sell-offs are short-lived. A bear case scenario for equities would require a sustained rise in oil prices to USD 120/bbl – analysts write that this situation may arise if there is a sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Given the latest ceasefire agreement, this seems much less likely – though uncertainty in the region continues to remain.

24 Jun 2025 - 10:05- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk