EUROPEAN EQUITIES UPDATE: Mostly lower but FTSE 100 buoyed by mining names, ASML +2.5% after a broker upgrade

STOXX 600: U/C

• European bourses opened mostly lower, and then moved lower soon after the European cash open despite a clear driver, but alongside a broader slip in sentiment across markets. However, that downside has since pared, with some indices managing to climb back into the green. Some traders may focus on the lack of concrete progress between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi, following their call on Friday.


• On that, the POTUS said “we made progress with China on several important issues” and said “we will not allow anything bad to happen to the TikTok app”. On the Chinese side, the Commerce Ministry said China hopes the US will work with it to promote stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-US economic and trade relations.


• Traders may also focus on the recent growing geopolitical tensions. On Friday, Estonia triggered NATO Article 4 after three Russian MiG-31 jets entered its airspace on Friday, while Germany scrambled fighter jets to track a Russian plane over the Baltic Sea over the weekend. In the Middle East, an Israeli official told Sky News that a full or partial annexation of the West Bank is being considered.


• Ahead focus will be on EU Consumer Confidence and speak from BoE’s Bailey and Pill.

Sectors: Mixed

• European sectors are split down the middle, and with a very broad breadth to the market thus far.


• Basic Resources is by far and away the outperformer today, boosted by the continued strength in spot gold, which has made yet another ATH. Mining names such as Fresnillo (+4%), Rio Tinto (+2%) and Anglo American (+1%) all move higher.


• Tech follows in second place, albeit with gains of a much lesser magnitude. Strength which can be attributed to upside seen in ASML (+2.5%), which has been boosted following a broker upgrade at Morgan Stanley to Overweight from Equal Weight; its PT was also boosted to EUR 950 (prev. EUR 600). As a reminder, this follows on from a similar PT upgrade at BofA, where analysts set a target of EUR 941 (prev. EUR 724).


• Autos is in last place, and is by far the clear underperformer today. Pressure in Porsche SE (-5.2%) is driving the downside in the sector after the Co. cut guidance citing EV-launch delays and increased costs due to a revamp to its production lineup; Porsche AG (-6%) and Volkswagen (-6.5%) move lower as a result of the guidance cut.

Movers:

• BBVA +4.3% / Sabadell -3.2%; BBVA ups offer for Sabadell by 10% to EUR 17bln; CEO of Sabadell said BBVA has a diminished chance of succeeding with improved bid.


• Telecoms; Vodafone (-0.8%) picks Ericsson (+0.5%) and Nokia (U/C) for a GBP 2bln contract to expand its network across the UK, via Bloomberg.


• Roche +1.9%; positive phase III results show Roche’s giredestrant significantly improved progression-free survival in ER-positive advanced breast cancer. evERA met its co-primary endpoints.


• Airliners; easyJet (-0.9%), Wizz Air (-0.9%), Deutsche Lufthansa (-0.7%) move lower after multiple European airports were subject to a suspected cyber-attack.


• Safran +1%; will repurchase its own shares for a maximum amount of EUR 500mln.


• Fugro -7%; withdraws 2025 guidance amid project delays.

US Equity Futures: ES -0.2%, NQ -0.2%, RTY U/C

• Futures are broadly marginally lower to flat, with the ES/NQ both slightly in the red whilst the RTY meanders around the unchanged mark. Newsflow thus far has been relatively quiet, but will pick up throughout the week, which is packed with Fed/Trump speak and the PCE report.


• The US data docket is void of any notable releases, so traders will focus on a number of Fed speakers which include; Williams, Musalem, Barkin and Hammack. Do note that Miran will provide a text release explaining his decision to dissent at last week’s confab, though he spoke extensively on Friday, saying “he doesn't see material inflation from tariffs”.

22 Sep 2025 - 09:55- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk