EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: XAU returns back above USD 4k/oz following hawkish Fed cut, crude remain rangebound

Crude Oil: WTI/ Brent -0.5%

• Price action in crude benchmarks has been choppy throughout the APAC session and into the European trading day amid light crude-specific newsflow. WTI and Brent peaked at USD 61/bbl and USD 64.70/bbl during Wednesday’s US session but has since fallen lower to a trough of USD 59.84/bbl and USD 63.69/bbl despite larger-than-expected crude draws. WTI and Brent are currently trading at USD 60.20/bbl and USD 64.00/bbl as the market awaits a new catalyst.


• On geopolitics, US President Trump has instructed the Department of War to start testing its nuclear weapons immediately in response to other countries’, specifically Russia and China, testing programs.

Precious Metals: XAU +1.9%, XAG +1.5%

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  Spot XAU has stabilised above USD Wednesday’s trough of USD 3915/oz after falling back below USD 4k/oz following the hawkish cut by the FOMC. XAU fell just shy of Wednesday’s low to USD 3916/oz during the APAC session before slowly reversing the losses seen during the FOMC meeting. The yellow metal has returned back above USD 4k/t as the European session continues with XAU currently trading at USD 4004/oz.


• The FOMC cut rates by 25bps as expected but the hawkish tone came when Fed Chair Powell stated that a December rate cut is “not a foregone conclusion”. Treasuries sold off and the USD strengthened on this comment by the Fed Chair. Markets are now pricing a 74% chance of a cut in December, compared to the 98% chance seen pre-announcement.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -1.0%

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  Base metals have fallen from Wednesday’s record highs as the meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi ended with a lack of statements from both sides, indicating a possibility that the talks didn’t go as well as expected. However, recent comments from both sides indicated that the talks did go well, with the US cutting the fentanyl tariff to 10% and suspending the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year while the Chinese will halt rare earth export curbs and resume US soybean purchases.


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  3M LME Copper initially fell c. USD 90/t as the APAC session got underway and continued to fall to a trough of USD 10.99k/t as the US-China talks came to an end. As the European session got underway, the red metal started to reverse its losses with 3M LME Copper back above USD 11k/t and currently trading at USD 11.04k/t.

30 Oct 2025 - 10:05- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk