EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: TTF ignites on Sudzha damage, base metals dented by the risk tone

WTI/Brent: -0.2%

• Crude is incrementally lower after trading sideways throughout the morning in what has been an uneventful session for the complex so far; some modest pressure has made itself known in recent trade, amid the firmer Dollar.
• On Thursday, benchmarks settled just off session highs in wake of fresh US sanctions on Iran, specifically on 19 oil tankers, which saw WTI and Brent rise to peaks of USD 68.22/bbl and 71.12/bbl respectively. Aside from that, in a day with a deluge of central bank decisions and data, there was little headline newsflow for the energy space.
• Markets remain squarely focused on the Russia/Ukraine situation, with the latest update coming via the Kremlin on a US-Russia meeting in Jeddah, saying that it may not occur on Sunday but will be in the coming days.
• The Kremlin added they will announce who the Russian representative will be and are to discuss the Black Sea initiative and other points of the Ukrainian peace deal.
• OPEC+ stated seven nations including Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan issued new plans to compensate for pumping above quotas; Monthly compensation would represent cuts of between 189-435k BPD.

Dutch TTF: +2.7%

• TTF opened higher, but has come off a little as traders secure profits ahead of Trump and Defence Secretary Hegseth’s speech later. Upside comes after the Sudzha gas metering station in Russia’s Kursk region was shelled overnight, which the General of the Ukrainian army described as a Russian tactic to blame Ukraine.

Gold: -0.4%

• Spot gold has continued to decline following the recent pullback from record highs in the precious metal; recent newsflow for the yellow-metal has been light thus far, so is currently moving at the whim of the firmer Dollar.
• In terms of price action, the yellow metal trades at USD 3029/oz, within the middle of its USD 3021-3047/oz range.

3M LME Copper: -0.9%

• Copper futures are trading indecisively and continuing Thursday’s sell-off amid the downbeat risk environment and underperformance in China; 3M LME copper is now below USD 9900/t, in a USD 9,842.2-10,001.8/t range.
• China is to add cobalt and copper to its state metal reserves.