EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Subdued trade across industrial commodities amid uncertainty and overall downbeat Chinese PMIs

Crude Oil: WTI Jun -1.9%, Brent Jul -1.8%

• Softer for the third session in a row following yesterday's slide which now sees WTI back under USD 60/bbl.


• Desks pin the downside to ongoing tariff risks alongside expectations of OPEC+ further opening the taps. Furthermore, the bearish Private Inventory report yesterday only adds to the downbeat mood in the complex.


• US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +3.8mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate -2.5mln (exp. -1.7mln), Gasoline -3.1mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing +0.7mln - Traders today will be eyeing the weekly DoEs for confirmation.


• "Despite the recent weakness in the oil market, demand for Middle East crude appears to remain stable, with the market expecting Saudi Arabia to raise the official selling price by around US$0.3/bbl for Asian buyers for June deliveries." says ING.


• The complex saw modest upticks as EZ Flash GDP printed above forecasts Q/Q (+0.4% vs exp. +0.2%) and Y/Y (+1.2% vs exp. +1.1%).


• WTI June currently trades in a USD 59.26-60.43/bbl parameter with Brent July in a USD 62.17-63.34/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold -0.8%, Silver -1.9%, Palladium -0.9%

• Lower across the board amid a firmer dollar intraday and following US President Trump softening the Auto tariffs, which further unwinds some risk premium.


• Furthermore, the Iranian geopolitical risk is seemingly seeing some signs of improvement: Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said the E3 will hold talks in Rome on Friday and with the US on Saturday. Note that ongoing talks decreases the changes of a strike on Iranian nuclear sites.


• That being said, Pakistan's Information Minister said they have credible evidence that India is planning "military aggression" against Pakistan within 24-36 hours.


• Elsewhere, the World Gold Council expects the gold rally to dent India's jewellery purchases and boost investment demand.


• Spot gold resides in a USD 3,280.28-3,328.16/oz range at the time of writing, within Monday's USD 3,268-3,353.20/oz range.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -2.1%

• Hefty losses across base metals against the backdrop of a firmer dollar coupled with a cautious risk mood.


• Downward pressure further exerted after official Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs disappointed although Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts, while the mainland heads into a five-day weekend owing to Labor Day holiday closures.


• International Copper Study Group (ICSG) sees the 2025 global copper market to show a supply surplus of 289kt (vs prev. projection of a surplus of 194kt; 2024 surplus of 138kt), namely on higher mine supply and increasing capacity for smelting. That being said, ICSG expects the surplus to ease slightly to 209kt in 2026 amid a continued demand recovery.


• 3M LME copper is currently in a USD 9,206.17-9,436.60/t range at the time of writing.

30 Apr 2025 - 10:20- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk