EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Softer trade in crude with OPEC and US tariff negotiation deadline looming; gold eyes US jobs report

Crude Oil: WTI Aug -1.1%, Brent Sep -1.0%

• Softer trade across crude futures despite relatively light newsflow, with some bearishness potentially emanating from the lack of escalations regarding Iran, although a sixth round of US-Iranian negotiations is expected to be held in Oslo next week, according to Sky News Arabia. That being said, the Israel Broadcasting Corporation reported that Israel's army intensified its operations in Gaza in the largest escalation in months, according to Al Arabiya.


• Further, aside from today's NFP, traders have a few risk events to be aware of this weekend and next week.


• Participants are gearing up for this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, which is expected to once again increase supply, although Goldman Sachs said they do not expect a large market reaction if OPEC+ 8 decides to increase production on Sunday, as consensus has already shifted towards this outcome.


• Meanwhile, Trump's tariff deadline is looming and is set to expire on July 9th, with little in terms of deals announced in the run-up. Yesterday, the US announced a Vietnam deal, which includes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods exported to the US and a 40% tariff on goods deemed to be transshipped through Vietnam, potentially affecting some Chinese goods passing through the country, although details fo the deal are still being finalised according to recent reports.


• WTI resides in a USD 66.65-67.50/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 68.32-69.00/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold U/C, Silver +1.1%, Palladium -0.5%

• Mixed trade across precious metals in the run-up to the US jobs data.


• Spot gold prices pulled back from the weekly peak but remained supported, with trading subdued due to a flat US dollar and market participants awaiting US Non-Farm Payrolls data.


• Traders are cognizant of Trump's looming tariff deadline, which is set to expire on July 9th, with little in terms of notable deals announced in the run-up.


• Central banks added a net 20 tonnes of gold to global reserves in May, according to the World Gold Council, +66.7% M/M, but it is still below the 12-month average of 27 tonnes. Kazakhstan was the top buyer, purchasing 7 tonnes, followed by Poland (6 tonnes) and Turkey (6 tonnes).


• Spot gold resides in a USD 3,342-3,365.92/oz range with the next upside level the 23rd June peak at USD 3,393.64/oz.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.1%

• Base metals are mixed with copper prices directionless in cautious trade, with the red metal on LME finally topping USD 10k/t to the upside and trading on either side of the level since.


• All focus on the US jobs report later today, which will likely dictate sentiment for the rest of the session in the absence of any tariff/geopolitics-related macro impulse.

03 Jul 2025 - 10:00- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk