EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Pre-NFP lull felt across commodities, but crude eyes multiple risk events

Analysis details (10:10)

WTI and Brent futures are subdued in early European hours as market participants await the next catalyst, and with the clock ticking down to the US jobs report (Full Newsquawk preview available in the Research Suite). Also in the background, EU ministers want an agreement on the Russian oil price cap before December 5th, although the cap sees ministerial pushback from Poland which argues for a more hawkish stance. To recap, the most recent reports suggested the EU coalescing around a price near USD 60/bbl (down from the commission's original USD 65-70/bbl proposal), which is still above current levels Russia is selling at, thus causing a limited impact on Russian oil income. Elsewhere, OPEC+ is due to meet on Sunday with market sentiment leaning towards an unchanged output policy as OPEC+ awaits clarity on China's COVID stance and the Western Russian price cap. Desks suggest a small cut is also possible given the decline in oil prices seen since the last meeting in October. Looking at the schedule, OPEC+ cancelled the Joint Technical Committee (JTC) meeting. The JTC reviews oil market developments and relays findings to the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC). As a reminder, markets are closed during the OPEC+ decision and thus volatility could be expected at the futures re-open at 23:00GMT/18:00EST. WTI Jan currently resides just under USD 81/bbl whilst Brent trades sub-87/bbl, both within narrow ranges. Over to metals, spot gold is flat in pre-NFP trade and probes the USD 1,800/oz mark with the 200 DMA today at USD 1,795/oz. Base metal futures are similarly flat/mixed with 3M copper off session highs of around USD 8,418/t and closer to session lows of USD 8,337/t.

02 Dec 2022 - 10:10- Research Sheet- Source: Newsquawk