EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Ongoing Trump turmoil weighs on crude, XAU briefly dipped below USD 3k

WTI/Brent: -3.6%/-3.4%

• Crude futures continue the heavy selling as the market attempts to cope with tariff turmoil, the implications of increased OPEC+ supply and after Saudi Arabia cut its oil prices to Asia to their lowest in four months. Price action in the European morning has been fairly rangebound, given the lack of recent energy-specific updates and despite a slight pick up in risk tone in the equities space.


• Both WTI and Brent gapped lower at the open and continued to slip upon arrival of European participants, after failing to find support during the APAC session. This drags losses to around USD 2.3/bbl for the benchmarks, with US crude not trading in the 50s since the pandemic.


• Morgan Stanley cuts its Brent forecast to USD 65/bbl (prev. 70/bbl) for Q2


• Goldman Sachs reduces its December 2025 Brent and WTI forecast by USD 4/bbl to USD 62/bbl and USD 58/bbl respectively, while its annual average 2026 forecasts are now USD 58 for Brent and USD 55 for WTI.


• Saudi Arabia cut oil prices to Asia to their lowest in four months with May Arab Light Crude set at a premium of USD 1.20/bbl vs Oman/Dubai, while it set May Arab Light Crude official selling price NW Europe at + USD 2.55/bbl vs ICE Brent and to US at + USD 3.60/bbl vs ASCI.


• Qatar set May marine crude OSP at a premium of USD 0.60/bbl vs Oman/Dubai and set land crude at a premium of USD 0.50/bbl vs Oman/Dubai.

Dutch TTF: -5.4%

• TTF follows price action seen in the crude space, with the European benchmark slipping at the open, and attempting to recoup some losses in recent trade.


• Geopolitical updates remain muted as the demand side remains the centre of attention, though there were reports of Russia launching its biggest attack on Kyiv in weeks, and Russian energy infrastructure being struck, according to Russia’s Defence Ministry, both updates which may have capped losses.

Gold: -0.5%

• Spot gold remains subdued, though to a lesser extent than overnight losses of up to -1.5% which saw it dip to below USD 3000/oz to USD 2970/oz.


• Despite ongoing demand for safe-haven assets, WSJ attributes the dip to investors unwinding long positions in order to raise cash. According to its report, some investors liquidated positions to cover losses or take profits.

3M LME Copper: U/C

• Copper trades flat after rebounding from early losses at the open upon the return of its biggest buyer from a domestic holiday.


• Beyond tariff concerns, copper faces fresh pressure from reports that the US is nearing a critical minerals deal with the Democratic Republic of Congo, in which copper made up roughly 75% of exports in 2023.

07 Apr 2025 - 10:00- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk