EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: NATO & Oman in focus alongside the latest Ags. updates

Analysis details (10:25)

• Crude benchmarks began the session a touch softer, with participants digesting the multiple updates around the Poland missile incident and the Druzhba pipeline. Factors that initially bid the complex,  but subsequent clarification that the initial assessment is that the missile which landed in Poland was a Ukrainian air-defence missile tempered the move.


• However, the complex derived renewed impetus from reports that an oil tanker has been struck in an exploding drone attack off Oman, amid heightened tensions with Iran, via AP's Miller, an attack which reportedly occurred on Tuesday night. In wake of this, WTI Dec'22 lifted from USD 86.90/bbl to USD 87.50/bbl and Brent Jan'23 from USD 94.10/bbl to USD 94.70/bbl. Albeit, the benchmarks have eased a touch from best levels as the NATO meeting gets underway and initial reports double-down on the missile in Poland likely being Ukrainian; next up, we look for any indication that Article 4 has been triggered and thereafter for SecGen Stoltenberg’s press briefing at 11:30GMT/06:30ET.


• Reminder, NATOs Article 4 would result in intensifying discussions between members but does not guarantee that any action will occur. For reference, Article 5 or “Collective Defense” means that an attack on one ally is treated as an attack against all.


• Switching to Ags., the Russian Finance Minister remarked that they supported an extension of the grain deal at the G20 while the Kremlin said if necessary President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan will coordinate within hours. While notable, these updates did not cause any sustained reaction in Ags. given they broadly speaking chime with yesterday’s reporting any we still await an official announcement on the Black Sea deal’s fate.


• Moving to metals, spot gold is modestly firmer given the aforementioned geopolitical concerns and as the DXY languishes below 106.00. However, despite these factors, the yellow metal remains capped by Tuesday’s USD 1786/oz peak.

16 Nov 2022 - 10:28- Geopolitical- Source: Newsquawk