EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Markets await for the next catalyst as August 1st tariff day looms

Crude Oil: WTI Sep -0.2%, Brent Sep -0.1%

• Choppy price action in contained ranges, with the complex ultimately holding a mild negative bias whilst newsflow remains rather light. This follows the Tuesday weakness seen in prices as tariff woes linger ahead of the August 1st deadline. Sticking with trade, the EU and US are yet to move forward on a deal, whilst the Chinese Commerce Ministry confirmed that the Chinese Vice Premier is to hold talks with the US next week.


• Desks also suggest expectations of a large year-end surplus in the market, further caps upside. Analysts at ING suggest, "While we believe the surplus will still hit the market, relatively low inventories offer some support not just to time spreads, but also the flat price."


• Elsewhere, the weekly Private Inventories printed a slightly shallower than expected drawdown whilst internals were mixed - Crude -0.6mln (exp. -1.6mln), Distillates +3.5mln (exp. -1.1mln), Gasoline -1.2mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing +0.3mln.


• Ahead, in the absence of macro/geopolitical catalysts, the next scheduled data will be the weekly EIA inventories, whereby markets will be looking for confirmation of the Private metrics.


• WTI resides in a USD 65.14-65.78/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 68.44-69.10/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold -0.1%, Silver U/C, Palladium +0.3%

• Mixed/flat trade across precious metals amid a lack of fresh catalysts during the European session as traders await potential further trade updates in the run-up to next Friday's US-set deadline.


• Spot palladium is underpinned by the favourable auto tariffs secured by Japan, which includes 15% with no volume cap (vs the UK's 10% on 100k vehicles per year).

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.4%

• Mixed trade with the risk tone also somewhat tentative, awaiting the next catalysts.


• Glencore is reportedly on track to close its last two copper mines in Queensland next week, ahead of a decision on whether to also shutter a smelter at the same complex, and an associated refinery, according to Bloomberg.


• 3M LME copper trades in a narrow USD 9,870.05-9,932.80/t range at the time of writing.


• Chinese State Media confirmed a government document calling for inspections to ensure coal mines are not overproducing. Yesterday, coking coal prices surged by 8%, hitting the daily limit. Some cited unverified market chatter that the Chinese National Energy Administration has reportedly issued a verification notice requiring all mines that have exceeded production capacity to suspend operations for rectification.

23 Jul 2025 - 10:15- ForexEU Research- Source: Newsquawk