EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Iran judged to be in non-compliance with IAEA rules, XAU whipsaws

WTI/Brent: -1.0%/-1.2%

• Crude futures are pulling back from Wednesday’s gains, during which WTI and Brent settled higher by around USD 3/bbl, amid heightened US tensions with the Middle East.


• On the day, WTI and Brent are trading within respective USD 67.28-69.29 and 68.83-70.25/bbl ranges, currently near session lows—though still firmly holding onto gains from the prior session.


• On the US and Iran, nuclear talks are said to take place this Sunday, the 15th, according to Oman’s Foreign Minister. Elsewhere, the IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution declaring Iran as non-compliant with nuclear safeguards, Iran, in response, said they condemned the "political decision”, and will launch a new enrichment site in a safe zone. For context, the next steps could see Iran subject to UN sanctions which were removed under the 2015 nuclear deal (reminder, the US withdrew from this under Trump 1.0). We now look to whether nuclear talks will actually take place this weekend, given Iran’s position on enrichment - which Trump strongly opposes.


• In terms of yesterday’s drivers, AP reported the US State Department is authorising the departure of non-essential personnel from Bahrain and Kuwait, with Reuters citing heightened regional tensions behind the move. Adding to this, US officials were told that Israel is fully ready for an Iran operation & WaPo reported US intelligence officials are increasingly concerned about the fear of Israel striking Iran without Washington's approval


• Before these geopolitical updates, the EIA weekly inventory unveiled larger crude stocks than expected of 3.644mln, surpassing the crude draw of 0.4mln in Tuesday's Private Inventory report. Prices saw little movement upon the release.

Gold: +0.2%

• Spot gold is firmer on the day, after being slammed in early European trade with no obvious driver behind the move other than a slight pick-up in the USD (unlikely to be the sole driver of the move).


• Given the uncertainty surrounding the US-Middle East, it posted firm gains yesterday, though price action this morning is tied with USD moves.


• XAU/USD currently resides within USD 3,338.73-3,377.91/oz bounds.

3M LME Copper: +0.2%

• In short, specifics for base metals have been a little light and are largely a continuation of drivers seen in recent sessions.


• The risk tone and recent, though limited, bout of USD strength is weighing on the complex.


• Additionally, Platinum continues to draw attention and is modestly in the red today. Taking a breather from the uptrend that has been intact almost without break for the last nine sessions. Note, pauses seen in the bullish-trend/squeeze in recent weeks have proven to be quite fleeting.

12 Jun 2025 - 10:00- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk