EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Initial downward bias in crude complex now reversed, XAU lower

WTI/Brent: +0.3%/+0.3%

• WTI and Brent price action has been choppy today, but are currently slightly firmer. To recap, nothing really behind the downside this morning, but seemingly a continuation of overnight/this week’s price action as markets continue to price out the cooling geopolitical risk premia in the complex. The reversal also lacked catalysts, but perhaps as traders turn their attention to the developments in Gaza/Israel.


• To recap, Russia’s Kremlin said in the prior session that President Putin and his US counterpart would meet for talks, potentially next week. However, this was later pushed back on by the White House. It is also worth highlighting commentary from Trump, who suggested that Ukrainian President Zelensky does not need to meet up with Putin to agree to a ceasefire – there are currently no reports of a meeting between the pair, despite Zelensky calling for one. Do note that Trump’s deadline for secondary tariffs on Russia crosses today, so any developments on that front will be sought.


• Over in the Middle East, news that Israel’s Security Cabinet approved plans to occupy Gaza City has increased fears of continued escalation in the region, rather than progress to peace. This new plan has received disapproval from the UK’s PM Starmer and from families of the current hostages in Gaza.


• WTI and Brent currently sit in a USD 63.19-97/bbl and USD 65.80-66.57/bbl range respectively; currently are off worst levels.

Gold: -0.1%

• Contained, holding around the USD 3.4k/oz mark in USD 3381-3409/oz parameters.


• The main point of newsflow was a report in the FT that the US Customs Border Protection agency is to classify 1 kilo and 100 ounce gold bars as subject to levies, according to the FT citing a July 31st ruling.


• A ruling that contrasts with expectations for such bars to be exempt from US tariffs. The FT report saw COMEX Dec spike to a USD 3534/oz peak while spot gold picked up a touch but only very modestly by comparison.


• Since, the COMEX future has pulled back and is back to pre-report levels, largely treading water in fitting with XAU as newsflow since has been light and we await further updates on the gold situation, particularly for updates from Switzerland given their dominance in the market.

Copper: +0.2%

• Base metals are broadly contained. Specifics light and the APAC handover was a mixed one caught between earnings and trade uncertainty into next week’s deadlines.


• At best, 3M LME Copper has breached USD 9.7k but has failed to make any real traction above it with ranges from earlier in the week also fairly lacklustre.


• The docket ahead, barring an unscheduled update on the Fed/tariffs/geoplols, is largely devoid of Tier 1 events and thus it could be a quiet end to a packed week of general macro newsflow for the space.

08 Aug 2025 - 10:00- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk