EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Industrial commodities softer on tariff woes; spot gold inches closer to all-time-highs

Crude Oil: WTI Apr -0.2%/Brent May -0.2%

• Softer trade across crude benchmark after a session of consolidation in APAC hours, after being buoyed on Wednesday by the turnaround in recent risk sentiment as cooler-than-expected US CPI.


• Losses this morning were facilitated by a couple of updates around the time 1) US Envoy Witkoff's plane has crossed the Russian border, 2) Russia's Kremlin suggested Putin is to have an international phone call later (albeit didn't say with whom), 3) the IEA Oil Market Report (more below).


• The IEA Oil Market Report cut its 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 1.03mln BPD (prev. 1.1mln BPD), and noted that "Risks to the market outlook remain rife and uncertainties abound." IEA's current balances suggest global oil supply may exceed demand by around 600k BPD this year - and "If OPEC+ extends the unwinding of output cuts beyond April without reining in supply from members currently overproducing versus their targets, another 400k BPD could be added to the market. Equally, the scope and scale of tariffs remains unclear, and with trade negotiations continuing apace, it is still too early to assess the impact on the market outlook." the agency said.


• Note, there are reports that Saudi Aramco is set to supply the lowest amount of oil to China in at least 10 months, according to Bloomberg, although the article caveats that it is unclear if it's due to lower cargo requests from China or supply reduction from Saudi.


• Note, next week, US oil and gas executives will be meeting with US President Trump, with tariffs, trade, and LNG exports among topics oil executives and US President Trump to discuss, according to Reuters citing an industry source.


• WTI Apr currently resides in a USD 67.40-67.94/bbl range while Brent May trades in a USD 70.72-71.25/bbl band.

Precious Metals: Gold +0.5%, Silver -0.2%, Palladium -0.2%

• Mixed trade with spot gold remaining underpinned and continued the upward momentum seen post-CPI data.


• Demand for the yellow metal also comes against the backdrop of fears of trade wars being sparked by US trade policy.


• In geopolitics, momentum is seemingly intact towards efforts of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, although geopolitical analysts remain sceptical that Russia will agree without friction or changes that will likely be rejected by Ukraine.


• Spot gold resides in a USD 2,932.98-2,948.12/oz range as it eyes the all-time-high at USD 2,956.31/oz set on the 24th Feb.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.3%

• Lower across the board amid the ongoing tariff woes, albeit losses are modest given the lack of fresh newsflow ahead of US PPI.


• 3M LME copper resides in a current USD 9,721.42-9,811.90/t range.


• Elsewhere, A majority of Rio Tinto production workers in the Pilbara have backed a union push to force the Co. into a union agreement, with the Western Mine Workers Alliance announcing on Thursday that it had secured the support of “well over 400 workers” at key iron ore hub Paraburdoo.

13 Mar 2025 - 10:00- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk