EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Industrial commodities plumb the depths amid growth woes

Crude Futures: WTI May -3.7%, Brent June -3.5%

• In wake of "Liberation Day", crude futures are lower by around USD 2.4/bbl apiece, with risk sentiment hammered by US President Trump’s tariff announcement with markets digesting the downside growth implications, and with a risk-off trade seen across global markets.


• Price action has mostly been to the downside, and benchmarks are testing session lows at the time of writing. -


• Though the market is dominated by the tariff discourse, in the background the eight members of OPEC+ conducting the voluntary cuts will be holding a call (timing TBC), where members will discuss Kazakhstan output; additionally, the members may decide to conduct the JMMC meeting today rather than Saturday, as reported by a Reuters source yesterday.


• OPEC+ will likely take a back seat today, although a decision to scrap the planned April rollback of voluntary cuts may inject some upside to prices. "We may also get clarity on whether the group will continue to unwind supply cuts next month. Yet even as OPEC+ brings supply back to the market, some members need to make compensation cuts for previous overproduction. This should more than offset the planned supply increases.", says ING.


• Major geopolitical updates remain quiet thus far.


• WTI resides in a USD 68.98-70.41/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 72.27-73.40/bbl parameter.

Nat Gas: Dutch TTF -2.4%

• Dutch TTF also trades lower, in line with broader risk sentiment, as Trump's tariffs take centre stage.


• The little commentary we have seen on the geopolitical front was comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who said Ukraine may be coming to the US “as soon as this week”.


• More recently, this morning, Russia’s Dimitriev said Russia is currently holding a meeting with US representatives, which appears to have weighed on the benchmark, now approaching session lows of EUR 39.60/MWh

Precious Metals: Gold -0.1%, Silver -2.9%, Palladium -0.3%

• Lower trade across precious metals, although spot gold was initially boosted by the tariff announcement as traders flocked to haven assets amid growth uncertainty and woes over how trading partners may retaliate.


• US President Trump's tariff order exempts gold, according to Reuters citing a White House fact sheet.


• Silver underperforms, potentially amid a lack of exemptions from tariffs.


• Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,113.52-3,167.83/oz parameter after printing a fresh all-time-high overnight.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -1.5%

• Lower across the board amid the growth implications from the US tariffs, especially with a 54% cumulative levy on China.


• Better-than-expected Chinese Caixin PMIs failed to keep prices underpinned.


• The US has excluded steel, aluminium, and gold from reciprocal tariffs, providing some relief to domestic buyers who are already paying 25% duties on these key metals used in industries like automobiles and appliances. A Senior White House official also noted that products covered by Section 232 tariffs, including autos, steel, aluminium, copper and lumber will not be included.


• 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,487.40-9,623.05/t range at the time of writing.

03 Apr 2025 - 10:20- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk