EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Industrial commodities and gold subdued awaiting US CPI and ECB amid little macro updates thus far

Crude Oil: WTI Oct -0.4% Brent Nov -0.3%

• Subdued in early European hours following an uneventful APAC session and after their recent advances, which were facilitated by geopolitical developments in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, with an uplift seen after comments from US President Trump, who posted "What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!".


• The modest downside comes amid a cautious mood ahead of US CPI and ECB, whilst this morning the IEA raises its 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 740k BPD (prev. 680k BPD), and maintains its 2026 forecast at 700k BPD. Further, the IEA suggested World oil supply to rise by 2.7mln BPD in 2025 amid the latest OPEC+ hike (prev. view 2.5mln BPD rise), whilst the net increase from September to October in OPEC+ oil output will be 40k BPD, less than 137k BPD quota hike, citing capacity limits in some members.


• In geopolitics, there has been little following this week's major developments, including Israel's strike against Hamas in Doha and the multiple Russia drones shot down over Polish airspace. On the former, US President Trump reportedly demanded a commitment from Israeli PM Netanyahu not to strike Qatar again after the attack against Hamas leaders in Doha earlier in the week, according to Axios sources.


• WTI currently resides in a narrow 63.34-63.80/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 67.21-67.62/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold -0.4%, Silver -0.3%, Palladium +0.6

• Mixed trade across precious metals, with gold and silver taking a breather following recent advances ahead of US CPI.


• The consensus expects US headline CPI to rise by +0.3% M/M in August (prev. +0.2%), with the headline annual rate seen rising to 2.9% Y/Y from 2.7%. The core rate is also seen rising by +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.3%), with the annual rate of core CPI seen unchanged at 3.1%.


• Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,622.75-3,649.35/oz range and within yesterday's USD 3,620.13-3,657.61/oz range. All-time high still sits at USD 3,674.69/oz printed on 9th September.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.2%

• Copper futures gradually pulled back from yesterday's peak and eventually the USD 10k/t mark, with price action contained alongside the cautious risk sentiment heading into US CPI and the ECB, with the latter expected to hold rates at 2% for a second meeting. Attention will centre on guidance regarding further easing and the split of views on the Governing Council.


• 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,980.00-10,015.15/t range at the time of writing.

11 Sep 2025 - 09:55- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk