EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Gold prints fresh ATHs near USD 4,000/oz; crude subdued, eyeing geopolitical updates and firmer dollar

Crude Oil: WTI Nov -0.5%, Brent -0.5%

• 
  Crude benchmarks are subdued despite limited crude-specific newsflow to start the European session. WTI and Brent have been oscillating in a c. USD 0.70-0.80/bbl range and thus far, remain relatively flat on the session.


• Early in the session, Russian Deputy PM Novak said OPEC+ did not discuss increasing quotas by more than 137k bpd and that increasing quotas after November was not discussed. This comes amid reports last week stating that the group were considering a hike of 500k bpd and later opted for a 137k bpd increase for November.


• On geopolitics, Sky News Arabia citing sources reported that Hamas are wanting the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the main axes of the Gaza Strip and residential areas before the release of hostages. The release of hostages remains to be a sticking point for these talks and talks are expected to continue further today.


• WTI Nov resides in a USD 61.36-62.04/bbl range and Brent Dec in a USD 65.16-65.84/bbl parameter.

Precious Metals: XAU -0.2%, XAG -0.6%, XPD -0.1%

• 
  Spot gold has pared back on ATHs formed early in the APAC session as the yellow metal continues to soar towards USD 4,000/oz. XAU peaked at a new ATH at USD 3,977/oz before falling back into the prior days range and currently trading at around USD 3,950/oz.


• Dollar strength at the start of the European session has been weighing on the yellow metal following comments by hawkish Fed voter Schmid, cautioning against a rapid turn to cut rates.


• Another vote to pass a bill to end US government shutdown failed in the Senate, as expected. On the positive side, US President Trump said he is willing to negotiate with Democrats on health care subsidies, a step that could help break the deadlock and end the government shutdown.


• Furthermore, geopolitics could be weighing on the yellow metal amid seemingly positive vibes from the Israel-Hamas deliberations.


• Spot gold resides in a current USD 3,941.06-3,977.40/oz intraday range.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper +0.3%

• 
  Base metals remain calm following last week’s gains in copper which set the largest weekly gain since April on supply outages.


• 
  3M LME Copper oscillates in a tight USD 10.66-10.75k/t band, as the market awaits China to return from holiday.


• Elsewhere, the European commission is expected to unveil its new steel import tariff plan today, with reports that a 50% levy is on the table, as the bloc aims to protect its struggling steel industry.

07 Oct 2025 - 10:15- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk