EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Gold lifted, Crude pushed into the red and Copper dented amid China trade retaliation

Crude Futures: WTI May -0.1%, Brent June -0.1%

• Crude futures are subdued this morning in the wake of China trade updates and IEA OMR forecasts, resisting earlier upside from Trump tariff walk backs on Monday.


• Benchmarks were gradually edging to session highs, but gains reversed and brought the complex into the red amid further trade retaliation from China, where the nation has reportedly asked that its carriers halt purchases of aircraft-related equipment.


• At the same time, IEA OMR lowered oil demand forecasts, as OPEC’s MOMR did on Monday, both citing tariffs.


• In a little more detail, IEA cut 2025 oil demand forecasts amid tariffs and sees a 2026 surplus. On supply, the 2025 global supply growth forecast was slashed by 260k BPD to 1.2mln BPD due to a decrease in US and Venezuelan output. For 2026 world oil demand growth will slow further 2026 to 690k BPD.


• Onto geopolitics, IRNA reported that the next round of Iran-US talks will be held in Muscat, Oman, on April 19th. Meanwhile, "Iran is expected to oppose a US plan to transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to a third country such as Russia", according to Sky News Arabia.


• On the Russia-Ukraine front, Russia's Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Naryshkin says in the event of NATO aggression against Russia or Belarus, the damage will be inflicted on NATO as a whole; Poland and Baltic states will suffer first, according to Ria. The official also noted that Russia continues to comply with the moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes.


• WTI resides in a USD 61.27-62.06/bbl while Brent trades in a USD 65.40-64.85/bbl parameter.

Nat Gas: Dutch TTF +0.7%

• Dutch TTF trades higher, continuing Monday’s gains amid the lack of concrete updates on the Russia/Ukraine front.


• The European benchmark seems reluctant to trade on updates from the US administration, where Trump said he thinks they “will get some very good proposals on stopping the Ukraine war very soon”.


• Further, on the geopolitical front, blasts reportedly shook the Russian city of Kursk near the Ukrainian border and damaged residential buildings.


• In terms of price action, it trades within a EUR 35.09-34.08/MWh range, creeping towards earlier highs made at the open.

Precious Metals: Gold +0.6%, Silver U/C, Palladium -0.4%

• Mixed trade across precious metals compared to recent days, with the US and global tariff policy showing some stability after recent toing and froing.


• Desks highlight that trade escalation uncertainty remains, particularly between the world's two largest economies and thus demand for havens.


• Central bank purchases are also expected to keep the yellow metal underpinned; reminder yesterday, reports suggested the PBoC has allocated fresh gold import quotas for banks, according to Bloomberg; to meet increased demand from institutional and retail investors amid the escalating trade war.


• Spot gold resides in a current USD 3,210.06-3,232.75/oz range with yesterday's peak at USD 3,245.84/oz.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.4%

• Mixed trade across precious metals as traders weigh the demand impact from a US-Sino trade war with expected Chinese stimulus. That being said, some desks expected the base metals complex to continue trending lower, contingent on the scope of tariffs and the time in force.


• Dalian iron ore ended the day at +1.0% with traders citing potential Chinese stimulus to cushion the impacts of the trade war.


• 3M LME copper resides in a 9,154.35-9,249.05/t range.

15 Apr 2025 - 10:20- MetalsGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk