EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Geopols in focus, XAU at another ATH

WTI/Brent: +0.2%/+0.2%

• Initially firmer by c. USD 0.60/bbl after a weekend of geopolitical newsflow. Benchmarks remain in the green, but are off best in USD 62.30-63.00/bbl and USD 66.62-67.31/bbl parameters for WTI and Brent respectively. Initially unreactive to the recent bout of USD pressure and slight recovery in the European equity risk tone; however, as the European morning progressed the complex has trimmed notably from best, potentially as the frequency/pertinent of geopolitical developments slows.


• The main updates have been Estonia triggering NATO Article 4 following the Russian jet incursion, US President Trump saying Europe won’t be allowed to buy Russian oil for much longer & Israel announcing that a full/partial West Bank annexation is being considered.


• Article 4 has also been triggered by Poland in recent sessions, following multiple Russian drone incursions. As it stands, we haven’t heard too much from NATO about what action could be taken, no significant talk of Article 5. The NATO NAC will convene this week to discuss the Estonian event.


• Trump continues the US’ rhetoric around Europe purchasing Russian oil, though his remarks are slightly more punchy saying the bloc “won’t be allowed” to make such purchases for much longer. As a reminder, on Friday the EU said it intended to bring forward the ban on Russian LNG imports by one year.


• Israel is said to be considering annexing the West Bank to some degree following the UK recognising Palestinian statehood, reconciliation undertaken by other nations as well and “categorically rejected” by Israel.

Gold: +1.0%

• Supported by the above. Experienced a modest jump in the European morning as the general risk tone deteriorated from the mixed APAC handover. As a reminder, much of the overnight focus was on the Xi-Trump call, described as disappointing by some.


• Despite the mentioned slight recovery in sentiment, the yellow metal continues to inch higher (similar action seen in Fixed), at a USD 3722.56/oz peak and at yet another ATH.

Copper: +0.2%

• Contained in APAC trade with initial modest gains fading as the tone in China deteriorated as the leaders' call was digested, and into a meeting with Chinese regulators. The readout started with the PBoC Governor saying the briefing would not involve any short term policy adjustment.


• For the first part of the morning, 3M LME Copper didn’t move significantly from the unchanged mark into a session dominated by Fed speak and a packed week which kicks off with PMIs on Tuesday. However, the slight recovery in the European risk tone/US pre market has been sufficient to lift the base metal back above the USD 10k handle.

22 Sep 2025 - 09:55- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk